Pozsar: "Value investing is dead because bonds offer no value"

Housekeeping: As promised

---

1. Intro

2. The End of Discipline

   1. The Bottom Line

3. The Problem Identified

4. Line by Line

5. What about YCC?

6. The Meta-Bottom Line

7. Term Premium poised to Rise Again

1- Intro

Good Morning. Despite the brevity of the source analysis, Pozsar’s piece is likely very important in understanding one path the Fed, (or at least some inside the Fed), believe markets must take to correct our economic situation as it currently exists.

This Book is Worth an Ounce of Gold…

Note: This book is not about Bonds. it is about investing , and quite easy to read now that we are 30 years older.

Please listen to the audio for a more contextual and frank comment that should convey the confidence of this analysis before we posted it. ¹

2- The End of Discipline

Zoltan Pozsar’s new firm Ex Uno Plures publishes pieces similar to his prior work at Credit Suisse which we had broken down for GoldFix subscribers the past two plus years. All of his CS work since the end of 2021 can be found in our archive with analysis and translations.

His most recent missive entitled The End of Discipline, was posted May 8, 2024. What follows is a sort of table of contents for the note that has been circulating in some quarters.

We have not read the note itself, but as mentioned in the audio portion, feel very comfortable commenting in a big picture way here. His nine-point list (cryptic as it is), is kind of like a “Zoltan Pozsar TL; DR” section without the bottom lines. We add at least one of his bottom lines as interpreted. That bottom line is essentially, term premiums must increase.