The Michael Oliver Interview

Good morning. As promised this is the Michael Oliver interview. Since recording this on Sunday at approximately 3:00 PM gold has rallied $35 for Monday and thus far an additional $30 for Tuesday morning please enjoy this -VBL

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[L]ooking out to, let's say, Tuesday or Wednesday. If you get gold even back up toward $2,900, ….and silver—You get it up about a percent above where it closed Friday—[They’re] going to break out over a similar structure, meaning momentum says, hey, you had your correction.- M.O.

Topic Outline

1. Introduction and Opening Remarks

2. Michael Oliver’s Background and Career Path

3. Development and Methodology of Momentum Structural Analysis

4. Current Market Analysis and Observations

5. Sector-Specific Analysis: Stocks and Financials

6. Analysis of Gold Miners (XAU Index)

7. Examination of T-Bonds and TLT

8. Macro Perspectives and the Role of Government Liquidity

9. Alternative Assets and Cryptocurrencies

10. Closing Remarks and Q&A Highlights

11. Contact Info

    1. BIO: About Michael

    2. Site: Michael Oliver’s MSA Technicals

Extended Outline (use attached transcript for keyword search)

1. Introduction and Opening Remarks

   • Vince Lanci welcomes Michael Oliver

   • Brief introduction of Michael Oliver’s reputation and background

   • Mention of Michael’s firm, Momentum Structural Analysis (MSA)

   • Context: addressing both familiar subscribers and newcomers

2. Michael Oliver’s Background and Career Path

   • Early Career

     • Hired in 1975 by E.F. Hutton in New York

     • Apprenticeship under David Johnston (chairman of COMEX)

     • Learning basic technical analysis (hand-drawn charts, trend lines)

   • Transition to Futures Brokerage and MSA

     • Moving from Hutton headquarters to field offices as a futures broker

     • Starting Momentum Structural Analysis in 1992

     • Evolution from simple price charts to momentum-based techniques

3. Development and Methodology of Momentum Structural Analysis

   • Concept and Technique

     • Oscillating price relative to moving averages (using the average as a “zero line”)

     • Creating oscillators that offer a different visual picture than standard price charts

     • Identifying structures (floors, ceilings, breakouts) on momentum charts ahead of price

   • Application Across Asset Classes

     • Stocks, commodities, debt, and foreign exchange

     • Historical case studies (e.g., the 1987 market action, Bunker Hunt era in silver)

4. Current Market Analysis and Observations

   • Stock Market Technicals and Bubbles

     • Analysis of indices (NASDAQ 100, S&P) using momentum trends

     • Criticism of banks’ price targets on gold and their repeated revisions

     • Discussion on the infusion of “free money” and its impact on market bubbles

   • Gold’s Momentum and Price Corrections

     • Explanation of “benign corrections” (e.g., a 4.3% drop) in gold

     • Use of daily momentum oscillators to gauge short-term pullbacks

     • Concept of V-shaped bottoms where momentum recovers faster than price

5. Sector-Specific Analysis: Stocks and Financials

   • Momentum Structures in Stocks

     • Evaluating long-term trend metrics (e.g., price vs. three-year averages)

     • Identifying when price action lags behind momentum indicators

   • Financial Stocks (e.g., XLF) and Related Technicals

     • Discussion on structural vulnerabilities in financials

     • The influence of T-bond rallies and potential government interventions

     • Comparisons with historical rate cuts and market responses

6. Analysis of Gold Miners (XAU Index)

   • Understanding the XAU Index

     • Definition: Philadelphia Gold and Silver Miners Index (different from bullion)

     • Historical range of XAU relative to gold (support levels around 17.5% to 35%)

   • Recent Developments and Technical Insights

     • Breakdown of the XAU spread in 2008–2009 and its recovery post-2015

     • Current readings showing improvement relative to gold

     • Downtrend structures and projections for an upside assault toward historical resistance

7. Examination of T-Bonds and TLT

   • Recent Trends in T-Bonds

     • Analysis of TLT (ETF for long-term T-Bonds) price action

     • Observation of basing action and high yields despite temporary rallies

   • Outlook and Limitations

     • Expectations for a temporary rally fueled by money flowing from stocks

     • Warning that any T-bond rally is likely a countertrend move

8. Macro Perspectives and the Role of Government Liquidity

   • The Fed Put and Market Bubbles

     • Historical examples: 2001 rate cuts, 2007–2008 crisis interventions

     • Discussion on how bubbles break regardless of government liquidity

   • Shift in Policy Focus

     • Observation that the “Fed put” has moved from stocks to bonds

     • Implications of global credit/debt bubbles and potential market corrections

9. Alternative Assets and Cryptocurrencies

   • Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis

     • Comparison of Bitcoin’s recent high and momentum decline

     • Discussion of potential bubble dynamics in Bitcoin

     • Observations on the overlapping behavior between Bitcoin and indices like the NASDAQ 100

10. Closing Remarks and Q&A Highlights

    • Summarizing Key Technical Insights

      • Emphasis on long-term momentum trends over short-term fluctuations

      • The importance of understanding market “structures” in various assets

    • Investor Guidance

      • Discussion on tactical versus strategic moves (e.g., swing trading vs. long-term holds)

      • Final thoughts on how differing asset classes (gold, miners, stocks, bonds) interact during market cycles

    • Contact Information and Further Engagement

      • Mention of Michael Oliver’s website (olivermsa.com) for further details and reports

• BIO: About Michael

• Site: Michael Oliver’s MSA Technicals

• Social Media: MSA on X.com