Housekeeping: Good Morning.
Remember the Toilet paper panic during Covid?
Now imagine that for Gold…
Today:
Commentary: BLS Idiocy
Premium: Gold Longs, Oil Shorts
Equity Recap:
US equities advanced on Wednesday after minutes from the Fed's July meeting signaled that most policymakers would support a September rate cut if data continued to come in about as expected. Large caps lagged small caps: S&P 500 (+0.42%) vs. Russell 2000 (+1.32%). MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) and MSCI EAFE (EFA) rallied 0.39% and 0.93% respectively.
Premium Markets:
CITI: on Gold and Silver
CTAs are ‘max long’ both Gold and Silver with the first sell level in gold -5% away at 2435 in GCZ4 , but in Silver the precious metal is trading right on top of its sell level this morning at 30.17
Note CTAs are now getting short Copper again…
What does it mean: Historically it means a $20 drop in Gold snowballs into a $100 drop and lasts 2 weeks. But lately, as demonstrated in price action and our own analysis these players have been selling into buying underneath that is not letting the dips go deep or last long…. We think that continues as the election and the BRICS summit approaches.
We have a full analysis on this and will eb posting it tomorrow. Topics in the upcoming report include:
CTA Wildebeest Behavior
Sell Season Looms
Which Should Mean…
The Gameplan
Oil is a Beachball
CITI’s Gold and Silver Analysis/Levels
ING Report: Oil Weakness
Oil continues to come under pressure and it is looking increasingly likely that OPEC+ will have to delay its plans of gradually increasing supply, otherwise expect further price weakness
Continues at bottom…
Market News: Unreliable Data Delivery
BLS Morons: At least three banks managed to obtain key payroll numbers Wednesday while the rest of Wall Street was kept waiting for a half-hour by a government delay that whipsawed markets and sowed confusion on trading desks. When the data was finally released around 10:30 am, it showed payrolls will likely be revised down by 818,000 for the 12 months through March, the steepest markdown to the job numbers since 2009.- ZeroHedge
Politics/Geopolitics: Iran Remains Patient
Israeli forces besiege Tulkarm refugee camp east of the city in the West Bank, while it was also reported that the Israeli army launched raids on 10 areas in Lebanon.
US officials said to believe that Iranian leaders have decided to postpone the response to Haniyeh's assassination but fear that Tehran will urge Hezbollah to attack, according to The Washington Post.
US military announced on Wednesday that the USS Abraham Lincoln entered the Central Command area of responsibility in the Middle East, according to Iran International.
US Embassy within Kyiv says they see an increased risk of Russian drone/missile attacks in the coming days, due to Ukraine's Independence Day on 24th August
Some headlines via NewSquawk or DataTrek
Data on Deck: Jackson Hole
MONDAY, Aug. 19 9:15 am Fed Governor Christopher Waller welcoming remarks 10:00 am U.S. leading economic indicators July -0.4% 0.2% TUESDAY, Aug. 20 1:35 pm Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech 2:45 pm Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr speech
WEDNESDAY, Aug. 21 2:00 pm Minutes of Fed's July FOMC meeting
THURSDAY, Aug. 22 S&P flash U.S. services PMI Aug. 10:00 am Existing home sales July 3.95 million 3.89 million
FRIDAY, Aug. 23 10:00 am Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech at Jackson Hole retreat 10:00 am 1
Final Market Check…
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