UBS Gold Analysis/ China Insurance Buying Locking in
“We are raising our gold price target to USD 3,500/oz across our forecast horizon and remain long the metal in our global and Asia asset allocation. We are also lifting our upside and downside targets by USD 300/oz to be USD 3,800/oz and USD 3,200/ oz, respectively.
“Aside from safe-haven demand and tactical speculators' positioning, we see signs of a more structural shift in gold allocations—for example, Beijing allowing insurance funds to invest in gold and central banks systematically raising gold’s share of total reserves. This significantly supports demand, while supply is unlikely to respond much to higher prices.”
GF- 250-300 tons of gold supply will be taken of the market indefinitely by end of 2025 as mandated by China’s governing party to its insurance industry in continuing process of gold liberalization and de dollarization.
Wall street ended higher after upbeat big bank earnings pacified markets, closing a chaotic week marked by major swings. Treasury yields jumped on tariff turmoil. The dollar fell, while gold surged as investors chose safety amid recession fears. Uncertainty over possible restrictions on Iran oil exports pushed oil prices higher.
Canada's main stock index advanced, led by gains in materials stocks, following strong earnings from U.S. big banks including JPMorgan, while investors treaded carefully amidst heightened U.S.-China trade tensions. Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX Composite Index ended 2.49% higher at 23,587.80
Market News:
US chipmakers outsourcing manufacturing will escape China's tariffs U.S. chip
Tesla stops taking new orders in China for two imported, US-made models
Chevron's Venezuelan oil cargoes stalled at sea after export cancellations
Data on Deck: Retail/ Housing
MONDAY, APRIL 14 6:00 pm Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks 7:40 pm Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks
TUESDAY, APRIL 15 8:30 am Import price index March 0.1% 0.4% 8:30 am Import price index minus fuel March -- 0.3% 8:30 am Empire State manufacturing survey April -10.0 -20.0
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 16 8:30 am U.S. retail sales March 1.2% 0.2% 8:30 am Retail sales minus autos March 0.4% 0.3% 9:15 am Industrial production March -0.2% 0.7% 9:15 am Capacity utilization March 77.9% 78.2% 10:00 am Business inventories Feb. 0.3% 0.3% 10:00 am Home builder confidence index April 38 39 12:00 pm Cleveland Fed President Hammack speaks
THURSDAY, APRIL 17 8:30 am Initial jobless claims April 12 -- 223,000 8:30 am Housing starts March 1.41 million 1.5 million 8:30 am Building permits March 1.46 million 1.46 million 8:30 am Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey April 3.7 12.5
FRIDAY, APRIL 18 8:00 am San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks1
