India is printing fiat explicitly to buy Gold and Silver now
Today:
Commentary: When Will it Be Safe?
Premium: Hartnett on Gold, Red Wave Gold, When We’ll Buy
Equity Recap:
Investors continued to swap out of US large cap tech in favor of small caps on Thursday.
Premium Markets:
We examine things closely in premium today with emphasis on timing and understanding the seeming contradiction in face of recent price action and describe the exact circumstances upon which we will speculate Long Gold again
Citi and BOA’s Hartnett on Gold
Citi: Managers are less constructive on energy and base commodities, but much more positive on precious metals.
In line with gold, managers have increased bullish bets on USD and JPY, while decreasing EUR and GBP.
MUFG: Implications for commodities under a Red Wave
Global commodities: A Red Wave will spur a return to higher rates with gold the standout best-in-class conviction across the entire commodities complex .
Structural gold drivers such as US fiscal deficit complacency risks, tariffs, trade retaliations, central bank reserve diversification amid de-dollarisation, inflation hedging, and bullion’s role as a geopolitical hedge of f irst resort in a w orld given a return to “America First” rhetoric, are likely to be magnified under a Red Wave.
More at bottom
Market News:
"OpenAI on Thursday announced a prototype of its search engine, called SearchGPT, which aims to give users “fast and timely answers with clear and relevant sources.” The company said it eventually plans to integrate the tool, which is currently being tested with a small group of users, into its ChatGPT chatbot. The rollout could have implications for Google and its dominant search engine." Source: CNBC
"What can you get with $1 million in today’s housing market? A starter home. Just a few years ago, one might expect a large, well-cared for home with a lush lawn and maybe even a pool for $1 million. But not anymore. Source: Bloomberg
"Bill Ackman has slashed his fundraising target for the initial public offering of his US investment fund Pershing Square USA by as much as 90 per cent, falling far short of the initial target of $25bn. Source: FT
Politics/Geopolitics:
Former US President Barack Obama and Michelle Obama announce their support for Kamala Harris' candidacy for the US presidency of the Democratic Party
US President Biden expressed the need to close the remaining gaps and finalise the Gaza deal as soon as possible during the meeting with Israeli PM Netanyahu, while he also raised the need to remove obstacles to the flow of aid to Gaza.
US VP Harris said she had a frank and constructive meeting with Israeli PM Netanyahu and she has unwavering commitment to Israel and its security, while she stands with families of hostages held in Gaza.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang said in talks with his Indian counterpart that China-India relations have an important impact beyond the bilateral scope and it is in the interests of both sides to get China-India relations back on track. Wang also said they hope the two sides will work in the same direction and actively explore the correct way for the two neighbouring countries to get along.
Some headlines via NewSquawk or DataTrek
Data on Deck: GDP and PCE
MONDAY, JULY 22 None scheduled
TUESDAY, JULY 23 PMI July 55.0 55.3
WEDNESDAY, JULY 24 10:00 am New home sales
THURSDAY, JULY 25 8:30 am GDP Q2 1.9% 1.4%
FRIDAY, JULY 26 8:30 am PCE index June 0.1% 0.0% 1
