Housekeeping: Good Morning.
Gold revaluation is a process, not an event
Today:
Commentary: China’s insatiable Silver Appetite
Premium: BOA says Oil is about to break out
Equity Recap:
US equities rallied on Friday after the Fed's preferred inflation measure eased slightly from a year ago in June, raising the prospect of a rate cut in September
Premium Markets:
Exclusive: China and LATAM Silver Part 1
Bottom Line: China is effectively laying claim to LATAM silver before it is refined and crowding out Western buyers by paying higher prices for ore without directly affecting spot price.
Chris Marcus and I recently had a conversation with a LATAM mining executive discussing Silver’s supply-chain dynamics from a miner’s perspective. During that conversation unexpected but important corroboration was given regarding China’s actions in LATAM. The final result is a two-part post which pieces together the LATAM/China connection.
Contents:
Bottom Line: Supply-Demand Economics
Background: China Wants the Silver
China’s Trade Negotiation Style
Trinidad and Tobago: From Oil to Infrastructure
Argentina: Yuan for Dollars
Part 2 overview
In part two we will post specifics from that conversation with the mining exec, analyze the direct implications, and comment on longer-term economic effects of this strategy.
BOA says Oil is about to break out
Oil prices have been trading in a narrowing range, or a triangle pattern, for over a year now. A triangle pattern is technically synonymous with a compressed coil or spring. When it becomes too tight and what’s holding it lets go, a sharp and sudden breakout trend occurs, which we estimate to be in August-October of 2024.
The Fractal Nature of Oil’s Charts are About to Play Out…
Three Key Pints:
Narrowing consolidation nearing an end
Compressed spring release in Aug-Oct ‘24
Cyclical bear within a secular bull trend
More at bottom
Market News:
"Donald Trump wants to be the [virtual currency] president. The Republican presidential candidate was the keynote speaker Saturday at the [BTC] Conference in Nashville where he courted about 20,000 die-hard [BTC] believers and industry executives... If elected president, Trump said he intends to create a “strategic national [BTC] stockpile” where the government would keep the tokens it holds or acquires. The [virtual currency] industry has long hoped that the U.S. would establish a [BTC] reserve comparable to its gold reserve to lend legitimacy to the [virtual] currency and stabilize its price." Source: WSJ
"The violent rotation out of Big Tech has dragged the Nasdaq 100 Index down 8% in just over two weeks, leaving it on the cusp of a correction. Source: Bloomberg
"China’s industrial profits grew at a faster clip in June, official data showed on Saturday, even as businesses were grappling with a downshift in consumers’ sentiment amid a shaky economic recovery.Source: CNBC
"Apple’s upcoming artificial intelligence features will arrive later than anticipated, missing the initial launch of its upcoming iPhone and iPad software overhauls but giving the company more time to fix bugs" Source: Bloomberg
"The personal consumption expenditures price index increased 0.1% in June and was up 2.5% from a year ago, with the annual rate showing a slight decline from the prior month. Source: CNBC
"Bill Ackman has postponed the initial public offering of his US investment fund Pershing Square USA, days after he acknowledged that it would raise far less money than initially planned Source: FT
Politics/Geopolitics:
A dozen were killed including children and more were injured by a rocket that hit a football pitch in Golan, according to Israeli Channel 13.
Israeli military spokesperson said they are preparing a response against Hezbollah, while the Israeli military later said it struck Hezbollah targets deep inside Lebanese territory and in southern Lebanon.
US is highly concerned that the Golan Heights attack could lead to an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah, according to Axios.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson warned Israel about any new ‘adventure’ in Lebanon regarding the Golan Heights incident.
Russian President Putin said Russia took note of US and German plans to deploy long-range missiles in Germany
Russia’s Defence Ministry said its forces have taken two villages in Ukraine’s Donetsk region...
Some headlines via NewSquawk or DataTrek
Data on Deck: Two Fed Decisions
MONDAY, JULY 29 None scheduled
TUESDAY, JULY 30 10:00 am Consumer confidence July
WEDNESDAY, JULY 31 2:00 pm FOMC interest-rate decision
THURSDAY, AUG 1 PMI July ISM manufacturing July 48.8% 48.5%
FRIDAY, AUG. 2 8:30 am U.S. employment report July 190,000 206,000 8:30 am U.S. unemployment rate July 4.1% 4.1% 1
Premium:
***DO NOT SHARE THIS***
