Housekeeping: Good Morning.
“The reset is a process, not an event.”
Today
Topic 1: DB Calls for a Bottoming range
Topic 2: Comex Deathwatch Update
Analysis:
DB Calls for a Gold Bottom
With expectations for severe trade disruption easing and dollar weakness temporarily arrested, gold has moved closer to its fair value range according to DB.
We think support for the market is closer at hand, and arguably in a zone between USD 3,000-3,200/oz. To substantiate this we reference the hybrid model we explored in early April. This posits that the post-2022 elevated pace of official demand (~500 tonnes above 2011-2021 average) is likely to continue for some time
Echoes of GS, BOA, and JPM’s new model for Gold valuation, quantified at those banks, but publicly pioneered at GoldFix long before they shared their models. This is vindication and the highest compliment.
Comex Deathwatch Update— They also note:
One surprising piece of market context is that CFTC gold net long positioning has continued to pullback throughout the rally – an unusual pattern which has gone further than we expected.
Another piece of the puzzle discussed here. While they will not say Comex is dying; they are demoting it as a driver of Gold price in this report.
Continues in DB Calls for a Gold Bottom
Market Recaps:
Data on Deck:
MONDAY, MAY 19 10:00 am U.S. leading economic indicators 1
Related Posts:
Summary and Final Market Check…
