Housekeeping: Good Morning. Transcript tabbed.
*** Special Gold analysis this weekend***
Contents
Yesterday’s Activity
Today’s Prices
Today’s Data
Markets/Metals Commentary
Attached- Miners, MUFG Analysis, Trump part2
Markets Covered:
Metals, Energy, Crypto, Bonds, Stocks
Yesterday’s Activity: GDP insane beat
Commodities- inline with stocks.. but oil outperformed
US equities- US equities rallied on Thursday after data showed better than expected Q4 economic growth. Energy (+2.23%) and communication services (+1.83%) outperformed the broader market
Bonds- weaker
DX-mixed but stronger
h/t DataTrek
Quick Take:
Hard read as PCE square ups are dominating market moves. Seems like if you are bullish stocks you should be buying oil. If you are bullish Gold you should be buying silver. And if you are bullish silver, you should be buying copper for less risk. CTAs are dominating Copper and Oil flows now.
Week’s Data:
Earnings, LEI, PMI, PCE, and GDP
MONDAY, JAN. 22 10:00 am LEI
TUESDAY, JAN. 23 None scheduled
WEDNESDAY, JAN. 24 9:45 am PMI
THURSDAY, JAN. 25 8:30 am Q4 GDPFRIDAY, JAN. 26 8:30 PCE
Total Calendar1
JPM’s Feroli sees PCE to print 0.2% vs. 0.2% survey vs. -0.1% prior and core PCE to print 0.22%vs. 0.2% survey vs. 0.1% prior, largely in line with expectations.
After the strong GDP beat yesterday, a in-line or lighter-than-expect PCE could supports the goldilocks scenario. On earnings, eyes on AXP for consumer read-through.
News:
NOTABLE HEADLINES
US is pausing the pending decisions of new LNG export projects in order to review economic and environmental impacts; Pause comes with exceptions for unanticipated and immediate national security emergencies.
Tesla got hammered
GEOPOLITICS
Israeli war council discussed a possible exchange deal with Hamas, according to Sky News Arabia.
Hamas said if the ICJ issues a ruling for a ceasefire, Hamas will abide by it if Israel reciprocates, while Hamas will release all Israeli hostages in Gaza if Israel releases all Palestinian prisoners.
American weapons arrived in Israel including dozens of F-35 and F-15 fighters and Apache helicopters, according to Al Jazeera.
Russian President Putin is reportedly to signal to the US that he's open to talks on Ukraine and sources added that Moscow is floating ideas on Ukraine security and territory, according to Bloomberg.
US officials said North Korean leader Kim could take some form of lethal military action against South Korea in the coming months after switching to a policy of open hostility,
some headlines via NewSquawk
Markets/Metals Commentary:
Chart walkthrough
Gold- floors and caps
Silver- strong. but fading
Oil- on its own
Stocks- unrelenting
Bonds- weaker
Tomorrow and next week:
Very Special Gold analysis and write up.
Commentary on the Bitcoin intrinsic piece- biting my tongue
True Technical Analysis returns
Interviews with Tony Nash, Peruvian Bull and Jordan at The Daily Gold
Attached. JPM’s morning Alpha team prep
