Housekeeping: Good Afternoon.
Hartnett’s Flow Show: Surprises & Sweeps
Hartnett’s Weekly report is presented 3 ways: 1) Video walk-through with analytical comments transcribed, 2) Hartnett’s main points broken out below, 3) and original format at bottom. Enjoy.
Chart 4: Largest inflow to gold since Mar’24
-Michael Hartnett
Scores on the Doors: crypto 28.7%, oil 17.1%, gold 14.4%, stocks 13.1%, commodities 11.1%, US$ 4.0%, cash 2.8%, HY bonds 3.0%, IG bonds -0.1%, govt bonds -4.8% YTD.
The Price is Right: main price-action past week as Trump sweep probability increased…winners = rates vol, yield curve steepeners, banks, tech; losers = 30-year UST, homebuilders, renewables, EM currencies as investors focus on fiscal stimulus/tax cuts first & tariffs second; note that past election "surprises"/"sweeps" caused 20-40bps yield curve steepening in 4 weeks (Trump '16, Biden '20, Truss '22, Le Pen '24 - Chart 3).
