Housekeeping: Good Morning. Transcript tabbed. CTA related here
*** Silver CTAs, China Problems, Fiscal Put **
Contents
Yesterday’s Activity
Today’s Prices
Today’s Data
Markets/Metals Commentary
Attached- CTAs
Markets Covered:
Metals, Energy, Crypto, Bonds, Stocks
Yesterday’s Activity:
Stock Meltup
Metals took a big hit, mostly industrial, Silver. Oil did well
US equities continued to rally on Monday as the S&P 500 closed at a new high and the Dow ended above 38,000 for the first time
Industrials (+0.74%) and real estate (+0.44%) outperformed the broader market indices, while consumer discretionary (-0.52%) and utilities (-0.52%) underperformed
h/t DataTrek
Overnight Activity:
Oil soft, gold strong, dollar weak in Asia now somewhat reversed
BOJ unchanged on easy policy.
China bazooka talk again
Week’s Data:
Earnings, LEI, PMI, PCE, and GDP
MONDAY, JAN. 2210:00 am LEITUESDAY, JAN. 23 None scheduled
WEDNESDAY, JAN. 24 9:45 am PMI
THURSDAY, JAN. 25 8:30 am Q4 GDP
FRIDAY, JAN. 26 8:30 PCE
Total Calendar1
News:
NOTABLE HEADLINES
China is said to consider an equity market rescue package backed by USD 278bln- or about 1 Elon Musk
PBoC leaders will hold a press conference on Wednesday at 07:00GMT/02:00EST to introduce the implementation of financial support for the real economy
GEOPOLITICS
Israel proposed a two-month fighting pause in Gaza for the release of all hostages
some headlines via NewSquawk
Markets/Metals Commentary:
Gold- stronger in Asia, backing off now
Silver:
Crypto: weak and getting weaker
Oil: give back some of yesterday gains so far
stocks are good with this behavior so far. recession/ stimulus half full
The Fed put concept is being thrown about again. It’s fiscal this time and closely related to the policy of using fiscal side to grow economy and monetary side to put brakes on it- Antigoldilocks, economic engine reset, deglobalization, mercantilism, supply chains, inflationary headwinds, retooling, anti financial leverage and pro-operational leverage again
Silver CTAs are very short and very profitable right now just like they are Oil. But in oil they are starting to Cover. They will cover in Silver as well. But you need a catalyst like:
China stimulus- They will say it
Physical demand like India- The EFP will show it
Fed Easing- We will hear it
This is very early in the game but it is now on our radar once again is the catalyst we need for a rally
Read more here
End
