Housekeeping: Good Morning. Transcript tabbed.
***Title: Japan is literally siphoning off Chinese investment money via its tax plan. Argentina is going full Libertarian. This is the US plan to economically stifle the
Today’s FOMC excpectations
Rates will be kept unchanged. There will be no rate hike or cut according to market rate futures pricing STIRs
The statement will be altered to reflect movement towards easing, but nothing aggressive is expected
Last Dot plot showed 3 potential rate cuts this year
No updated Dot Plot today Powell’s statementwill be the surprise if there are any
Its all about March now
Contents
Current Prices
Yesterday’s Activity
Data Due
News
Top of Mind title starts 8:03
Markets/Metals Commentary
Market Gameplan
Attached: Charts.
Yesterday’s Activity:
Commodities- buying in gold on dips, and selling in rallies… caps and floors going into FOMC
US equities- started strong, finished weak
Bonds- Up
DX- flat
Crypto- started very strong, finished very weak
Data Due:
US JOLTs & Earnings from GOOG & MSFT due
MONDAY, JAN .29 QRA
TUESDAY, JAN. 30 9:00 am S&P Case-Shiller home price 10:00 am Consumer confidenceWEDNESDAY, JAN. 31 Day 2 QRA, 2:00 pm Fed interest-rate decision
THURSDAY, FEB. 1 8:30 am Initial jobless claims Jan.
FRIDAY, FEB. 2 8:30 am NFP, Unemployment, Wages
Total Calendar1
News:
NOTABLE HEADLINES
Google and MSFT reported earnings with mixed results. Stocks took a hit overnight
A Delaware judge voided the USD 56bln pay package of Tesla (TSLA) CEO Musk, according to CNBC. Shares fell 2.6% aftermarket.
GEOPOLITICS
Iran's envoy to the UN said any attack on Iran, its interests or its nationals outside of its borders will be met with a definitive response, according to IRNA.
US military said it shot down an anti-ship cruise missile fired by Yemen Houthis into the Red Sea, according to Reuters.
Houthis say they fired missiles at US warship Greifley, and say they will target US, UK warships in 'self-defence', according to Al Arabiya
some headlines via NewSquawk
Top of Mind:
LIBERTARIAN ATTACK ON BRICS
Milei is economically Libertarian
Bank coverage of Argentina economics has upticked markedly… that’s bullish for investment there. Initiating coverage means buy it
Japan Equity Strategy:
From Morgan Stanley:
TOPIX Rising at Fastest Pace in 30 Years; Factor Analysis Suggests Overseas Investors Are a Key Driver. The positive performance of the Expected Dividend Yield factor could have been driven in part by expectations for Japan’s new “NISA” scheme (a tax-free stock investment program for individuals).
YTD the TOPIX has been rising rapidly, advancing at its fastest pace in 30 years and rebounding to new highs, led largely by P/E rather than earnings. Our Japan Equity Strategists’ analysis of factor returns shows sharply positive returns for the Market Cap factor: They note that large-caps generally have been favored during past periods when overseas investors were large net buyers of Japanese stocks, and they believe that this holds true currently.
(charts and further analysis in the Founders post later today)
Market Gameplan (Charts):
Gold
Silver
Oil
Stocks
BTC/ETH
Bonds
