Micheal Oliver's Mid-Year Gold and Silver Report Card

Morning Rundown

VBL

Jul 02, 2024

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Housekeeping: Good Morning.

Gold Revaluation is a process punctuated by events on Oct 22nd to Nov. 5th

Today:

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Commentary: Gold and Silver at mid-year

Session Recap:

US equities advanced Monday on the first trading day of 2H 2024, with the Nasdaq Comp closing at a record high

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Year-to-date: Silver up 21.4%; gold up 12.9%.

Excerpt Authored by Michael Oliver for MSA

Gold: up 12.9%.

February’s low was to some extent a wash-out low, before gold and silver’s long-term momentum factors (36-mo. momentum, 100-wk. momentum, etc.) engaged. Look at how events unfolded.

In early April gold produced highs above $2400 and a peak weekly close also credibly above $2400. It matched that close in May as well. But since its first pullback from that April surge high, it has gone lateral. Ho hum. And frankly, ho hum is a statement. Unlike surge highs of the past three years, this one did not spike and collapse only to labor well below the spike high. Instead, gold has picked its teeth only. A pause, we argue.

Silver: up 21.4%

Its April surge produced a peak weekly close below $29. But unlike gold, which then went lateral, silver surged again well above its first surge high of April. And silver’s pullback has since produced weekly closes that remain above that peak weekly close of April, unlike gold, which has gone horizontal.

So for those who claim silver is again a “dog,” pause and look at the action so far this year. From its low in that February drop, gold has gained 22.8% as of its top tick. Silver, since its February low, has gained 49%

GoldFix Quick Level Grid

GCQ: abv. $2357 daily/weekly close
- $2500 Extended target
SIU: abv. $30.04 daily/weekly close

On the following pages we update some more “trading-scale” metrics that will indicate when the recent shortterm pullback is ending.

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Market News: AI Advances and OG Enforcement

"Tech companies scouring the country for electricity supplies have zeroed in on a key target: America’s nuclear-power plants. Source: WSJ

"Northern Data is speaking with potential advisers about a US initial public offering of its combined artificial intelligence cloud computing and data center businesses that could fetch a valuation of as much as $16 billion." Source: Bloomberg

"Boeing must either plead guilty to felony fraud or go to trial against the US government as the next step in a criminal case stemming from its door panel blowout, Source: FT

"Nvidia is set to be charged by the French antitrust regulator for allegedly anti-competitive practices... making it the first enforcer to act against the computer chip maker. Source: Reuters

"Much of China’s new energy vehicle sales are being driven by hybrid-powered vehicles rather than purely battery-powered ones as range anxiety remains a top concern for consumers in China. Source: CNBC

"BlackRock Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink said its acquisition of data provider Preqin will allow the firm, best known for its index funds, to apply the format to fast-growing assets. “We believe we could index the private markets,” Source: Bloomberg

"The Zeta Economic Index, launched Monday, uses generative AI to analyze what its developers call “trillions of behavioral signals” to score growth on both a broad level and for stability. In June, both measures had good news, with the economic score at 66 and the stability index at 66.1." Source: CNBC

Geopolitics:

Israeli PM Netanyahu said Israel is nearing the end of the phase of eliminating Hamas military capabilities and will continue to destroy the remnants of the Hamas military.
Russia reportedly sent the Kilo attack submarine towards the Irish Sea twice since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, according to Bloomberg sources.

Some headlines via NewSquawk or DataTrek

Data on Deck:

~~MONDAY, JULY 1~~ ~~9:45 am S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI June -- 51.7% 10:00 am Construction spending~~
TUESDAY, JULY 2 9:30 am Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech in Portugal
WEDNESDAY, JULY 3 8:15 am ADP employment June 170,000 152,000', 2:00 pm Minutes of Fed's June FOMC meeting
THURSDAY, JULY 4 None scheduled, July 4 holiday
FRIDAY, JULY 5 8:30 am U.S. employment report June 1