Housekeeping: Good Morning. Big day for Metals content. Transcript Attached
***Look for those 3 items today and tomorrow for Premium Subscribers.***
First: We have a copy of the current WGC report on Gold and will break that down today and tomorrow for Premium subs.
Next we have Michael Oliver's MSA Research just put out his monthly commodity report. Find more at his sight: MSA Research
Finally, we have yesterday’s Bloomberg video on Gold, Silver, and Platinum. We are transcribing that interview.
Bloomberg, MSA, and the WGC today …
Contents
Current Prices
Yesterday’s Activity
Data Due
News
Markets/Metals Commentary
Market Gameplan
Attached:
Yesterday’s Activity:
Precious Metals- cannot get out of their own way
Oil- up and orderly
US equities- up and narrow
Bonds- not a factor
DX- does it matter
Crypto- the divergence continues
Week’s Data:
MONDAY, FEB. 59:45 am S&P final U.S. services PMI Jan. 52.5 -- 52.9
TUESDAY,FEB. 6 Fed speakers all day
WEDNESDAY, FEB. 7More speakers, Consumer creditTHURSDAY, FEB. 8 8:30 am Initial jobless claims
US Treasury Secretary Yellen at the Financial Stability Oversight Council 09:00EST. Orphaned industries, Regional Banking
FRIDAY, FEB. 9 8:30 am CPI seasonal factor revisions
Full calendar1
News:
News Links
NOTABLE HEADLINES
Senate Republicans blocked a bill pairing Ukraine and Israel aid and border security. The Senate will vote soon on advancing an aid-only package.- Packaged pork is not happening now. Shades of the tea party
US President Biden is poised to limit Americans’ personal data going to China with the administration planning to issue an order as soon as next week, according to Bloomberg.- Tough on China
PBoC releases Q4 monetary policy report: vows to keep monetary policy prudent. Prudent policy will be flexible, precise and effective; will fend off risks in key areas- We’re paying attention
China Auto Industry Body official says battery vehicle sales were -37% in Jan M/M; far below market expectations, which is a main source of pressure on auto market growth.- Our inflation is their deflation
GEOPOLITICS
UN report stated North Korea further developed its nuclear weapons last year and UN sanctions monitors are investigating 58 suspected North Korean cyberattacks since 2017 that earned USD 3bln to help fund WMD development, according to Reuters.
North Korea terminated inter-Korean economic cooperation law whereby the North Korean Supreme People's Assembly voted to scrap all agreements signed with South Korea on promoting economic cooperation.
Some headlines via NewSquawk
Market Gameplan (Charts):
Gold- Cant get out of its own way, China buying is done for the new year
Silver- Blood in the water. Opportunity will come if the Fed does not hike or China drops their recovery ball. Commodities are not getting a boost from China stimulus talk
Oil- There definitely is a buy order in this market, look for a spike higher, then we see if there is interest
Stocks- nothing about this market interests me. Technicians like AllStar point out divergences, Hartnett notes the rate risk on stocks, and the breadth is narrowing as it rallies. I’m no perma bear. having learned that in 2009. And timing this is not smart, but something is not right here. We exited my FXI position on china, but will not get short until we understand more, or see some good r/r parameters
BTC/ETH- the continued divergence between these assets tells us something. Bitcoin is in fact attracting real interest now for the right reasons. Look for volatility in this asset to drop and investor interest to grow
Bonds - I hate them. and am short them against being long gold and it is making money. But if stocks drop and it is not from domestic banking risks exploding, then these should rally more. Remember, China is getting advice from us economically again.. That is supportive for these.
Have a good day
***Look for those 3 items today and tomorrow for Premium Subscribers.***
MONDAY, FEB. 5 9:45 am S&P final U.S. services PMI Jan. 52.5 -- 52.9 10:00 am Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee TV appearance 10:00 am ISM services Jan. 52.5% 52.0% 50.5%
TUESDAY, FEB. 6 12:00 pm Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks 1:00 pm Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks 2:00 pm Boston Fed President Susan Collins speaks 7:00 pm Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks
WEDNESDAY, FEB. 7 8:30 am U.S. trade deficit Dec. $62.1B $63.2B 11:00 am Fed Gov. Adriana Kugler speaks 11:30 am Boston Fed President Susan Collins speaks 12:30 pm Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks 2:00 pm Fed Gov. Michelle Bowman speaks 3:00 pm Consumer credit Jan. $15B $23.7B 3:00 pm CBO briefing on budget and economic outlook
THURSDAY, FEB. 8 8:30 am Initial jobless claims Feb. 3 220,000 224,000 10:00 am Wholesale inventories Dec. 0.3% -0.2% 12:05 pm Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks
FRIDAY, FEB. 9 8:30 am CPI seasonal factor revisions 1:30 pm Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks
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