Given the above: What is a reasonable price for Silver if this is an acceleration phase of the bull market?
Silver Behavior in acceleration phases of Bull markets
The peak spread readings seen in those late bull-trend acceleration phases such as from 1979 to 1980 and in 2011, silver rose to 6% of the price of gold in 1979 and 1980 and to over 3% in 2011.
We argue that reaching such levels again in what is now another acceleration phase should be expected. Currently the spread is 1.32% and rising.
What does that translate to in price terms with Gold at $2400?
1.3% = $31
2% = $48
3% = $72
6% = $144
GS CTA Report
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Market News:
"The power to raise prices is slipping from some of the biggest US food and packaged goods groups, threatening their sales growth even as it spells relief for inflation-bruised consumers. Companies that imposed years of relentless price increases are now rolling out more discounts, adding coupons and spending to put their products front and centre in store aisles. Many have warned of a new frugality in households, especially poorer ones." Source: FT
"U.S. nonfarm payrolls grew by 206,000 in June, but the growth was narrow. Health care and social assistance added 82,400 positions, while government grew by 70,000 jobs. Several categories saw employment shrink, including manufacturing and professional and business services." Source: CNBC
"France was heading towards a hung parliament and rocky talks to form a government after an unexpected leftwing victory thwarted Marine Le Pen’s efforts to bring the far right to power. With almost all votes counted on Sunday, the leftist Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) bloc had won the most seats in the high-stakes snap election... the result will leave the Eurozone’s second-largest economy in limbo over its next government, with no single bloc near an outright majority in the 577-seat National Assembly." Source: FT
"After a dismal start to the year, Tesla’s stock has rallied sharply and wiped out its loss for 2023. Tesla shares closed on Friday at $251.55, capping a 27% gain for the week. On Tuesday, the automaker reported second-quarter vehicle deliveries that topped Wall Street estimates." Source: CNBC
Geopolitics:
Israeli PM Netanyahu said any Gaza deal must allow Israel to continue fighting until all war objectives are met and the deal must not allow weapon smuggling to Hamas via the Gaza-Egypt border.
Lebanon's Hezbollah said it launched its “largest” air operation, sending explosive drones at a mountaintop Israeli military intelligence base in the annexed Golan Heights, according to SCMP.
Moderate Pezeshkian beat his hard-line rival in the Iranian presidential race runoff
Some headlines via NewSquawk or DataTrek
Data on Deck:
MONDAY, JULY 8 3:00 pm Consumer credit May $8.0B $6.4B
TUESDAY, JULY 9 10:00 am Fed Chairman Powell testimony to Senate
WEDNESDAY, JULY 10 10:00 am Fed Chairman Powell testimony to House
THURSDAY, JULY 11 8:30 am Core CPI year over year 3.4% 3.4%
FRIDAY, JULY 12 8:30 am PPI year over year -- 2.2% 1
