Housekeeping: Good Morning.
“The Gold reset is a process, not an event”
Today:
Discussion: Central Banks and Gold Mines
Analysis: Wage Price Spiral is Back
The US/China Synchronized Tsunami is Here…
Discussion:
Central Banks Buying More Gold Now
In a rare shift, central bank representatives from Mexico, Mongolia, and the Czech Republic openly discussed their interest in boosting gold reserves.
“With lower rates, geopolitical tension, and the US election, we might see an increase in the share of gold in our portfolios,” he said.
On average, central banks hold about 15% of their foreign exchange reserves in precious metals, but that number is likely to go up as multicurrency plans continue to unfold
Peak Gold?
The lack of quality discoveries in the recent decade does not bode well for the gold supply. Based on the latest monthly Gold Commodity Briefing Service, we expect gold supply to peak in 2026 at 110 Moz, driven by increased production in Australia, Canada and the US — countries that also account for most discovered gold.
Gold supply is expected to fall to 103 Moz in 2028, resulting from a decline in supply from these countries. [barring tech innovations or disoveries]
None of the discoveries made in the last 10 years have entered the list of the largest 30 gold discoveries
"It does not bode well for the gold supply."
(NOW DO SILVER!)
Story: S&P: "It does not bode well for the gold supply."
News/Analysis:
Equity Recap:
US equities retreated on Tuesday as investors continued to assess corporate earnings results. Large caps lagged small caps: S&P 500 (-0.76%) vs. Russell 2000 (+0.05%). MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) and MSCI EAFE (EFA) fell 2.12% and 1.66% respectively.
Market News:
"Shares in ASML led a tech rout on Nasdaq on Tuesday after the chip equipment maker warned of a slower recovery in the semiconductor market, in results accidentally published a day early. FT
"Goldman Sachs topped estimates for third-quarter profit and revenue on strong results from its stock trading and investment banking operations. CNBC
"Bank of America topped analyst estimates for third-quarter profit and revenue on better-than-expected trading results.CNBC
"UnitedHealth said its earnings for 2025 will likely fall short of Wall Street’s early expectations WSJ
"Boeing has announced plans to raise up to $25bn in new capital and agreed a $10bn credit facility: FT
"Walgreens reported fiscal fourth-quarter sales and profit that beat Wall Street’s expectations, reflecting the company’s efforts to slash costs. CNBC
"National Football League owners approved Tom Brady as a minority owner of the Las Vegas Raiders on Tuesday. CNBC
Politics/Geopolitics:
Israel's army presented PM Netanyahu and Defence Minister Gallant with a list of targets for a possible attack on Iran, according to Israel's Channel 12 cited by Al Jazeera.
Washington believes it has obtained guarantees that Israel will not target nuclear or oil sites in Iran, but warned these guarantees are not conclusively confirmed and circumstances may change.
White House said reports of North Korean troops being used by Russia are concerning.
Data on Deck:
MONDAY, OCT. 14 Columbus Day holiday. Bond market closed.3:00 pm
TUESDAY, OCT. 15 Empire State manufacturing survey
WEDNESDAY, OCT. 16 Import price index
THURSDAY, OCT. 17 U.S. retail sales
FRIDAY, OCT. 18 Housing starts
FINAL MARKET CHECK