Discussion: Why Are Gold and Silver Re-Rallying Now?
Premium: Goldman’s 2025 Commodity Outlook is Why
Discussion:
Why Are Gold and Silver Re-Rallying Now?
Gold (+1.90%), Silver (+3.0%), Oil (+3.4%) Bitcoin (+2.0%), and Stocks (+0.30%) all were methodically bought out during US hours.
Russia-Ukraine War
China changing SGE Rules
Traditional Correlations
The Fourth Reason
We will add a fourth reason for the rally in Oil and Precious Metals. Goldman published a report on Sunday late afternoon recommending specific commodities for 2025. That full analysis has been written up and is attached at bottom.
Bottom line: GS said Buy Gold and Buy Oil as their two top ideas. And everyone did
US equities mostly rose on Monday amid a rally in Tesla (+5.62%) and ahead of Nvidia's (-1.29%) earnings report on Wednesday. Large caps bested small caps: S&P 500 (+0.39%) vs. Russell 2000 (+0.11%). MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) and MSCI EAFE (EFA) gained 1.14% and 0.54% respectively.
Market News: Lots To Notice
"Top Justice Department antitrust officials have decided to ask a judge to force Alphabet’s Google to sell off its Chrome browser in what would be a historic crackdown on one of the biggest tech companies in the world. Bloomberg- chrome vs firefox
"Tesla shares jumped on Monday following a report that President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team is planning to make a federal framework to regulate self-driving vehicles a top priority for the U.S. Transport Department. CNBC -Uber killer
"Donald Trump’s advisers are weighing a new slate of contenders for Treasury secretary amid a messy fight over the crucial economic position that has irritated the president-elect and his team in recent days. WSJ- Bessent/Lutnik
"China’s biggest technology groups are building artificial intelligence teams in Silicon Valley, seeking to hire top US talent despite Washington’s efforts to curb the country’s development of the cutting-edge technology FT You cant stop the trend, only slow it. tehy are testing our “free market principals everywhere now
"Spirit Airlines filed for bankruptcy, overcome by stronger competition for budget fares and the carrier’s own hefty debt obligations. WSJ- thats a job lower
"Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller built a sizable position in regional banks and made one health-care name his biggest position last quarter CNBC- vertical rollups coming
Politics/Geopolitics:
Israeli PM Netanyahu said Israel will carry out operations against Hezbollah even if an agreement is signed with Lebanon, according to Sky News Arabia.
Lebanon and Hezbollah agreed to the US proposal for a ceasefire with Israel with 'some comments' on content, according to a senior Lebanese politician who stated the US ceasefire proposal is the most serious attempt yet to end the fighting.
US State Department spokesman said progress has been made in negotiations on the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon, according to Axios. It was also reported that US envoy Hochstein headed to Beirut after receiving clarifications that they are able to reach an agreement, according to Al Jazeera citing Israel's Channel 12.
Israel launched a strike on central Beirut, according to a Reuters witness.
Hezbollah said it bombarded a gathering of Israeli enemy forces south of the town of Khiam, according to Al Jazeera.
Israeli Foreign Minister urged the UN to pressure Iraq after attacks by pro-Iran factions and said the government of Iraq is responsible for any actions that occur within or from its territory, according to Sky News Arabia and Asharq News.
Iran's Foreign Ministry said new EU and UK sanctions against Iran are unjustified, baseless and contradict international law.
Iranian Ambassador to Russia said there are no obstacles to concluding a strategic cooperation agreement between Russia and Iran, according to Asharq News.
US Ambassador to the UN said on Monday that the US will announce additional security assistance for Ukraine in the coming days, according to Reuters.
French President Macron said US President Biden's decision to allow Ukraine the use of US-provided weapons to strike inside of Russia is a good decision, according to Reuters.
Kremlin spokesperson said Russia is ready to normalise ties with the US but will not tango alone, while a spokesperson also said that Russia's amendments to its nuclear doctrine have been formulated but not formalised yet, according to TASS.
Russia and Chinese foreign ministers discussed 'unprecedented' strategic bilateral relations on the sidelines of the G20 meeting in Brazil, according to Russian agencies cited by Reuters.
EU foreign chief Borrell said the role of China is becoming bigger and bigger in the Ukraine war and without Iran and China, Russia could not support its military effort.
Some data via Newsquawk and DataTrek
Data on Deck: Housing and Talking
MONDAY, NOV. 18 Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee
TUESDAY, NOV. 19 8:30 am Housing
WEDNESDAY, NOV. 20 None scheduled
THURSDAY, NOV. 21 Existing home sales
FRIDAY, NOV. 22 U.S. services PMI/ Consumer sentiment
