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Discussion: The LBMA Addresses London Bullion Availability Concerns
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Discussion:
LBMA Addresses London Bullion Availability Concerns
BOTTOM LINE
The LBMA’s stance on gold availability and market mechanics remains debatable—while they insist on ample supply, market movements and pricing dynamics suggest deeper underlying pressures.
The LBMA asserts it is simply responding to wholesale panic and the delivery issues and delays are merely stresses of a 6 sigma event causes in no small part by the unpredictability of the Trump administrations policy around Tariffs.
Some believe like Daniel Ghali of TD Bank the free-float of gold in London is less than assumed and the US repatriation has revealed this shortfall is a smoking gun and the cause of the logistics problems.
Questions Addressed
Is the Gold Market Functioning as Intended?
LBMA executives asserted that the gold market is operating as expected
What is the Supply Source Breakdown: London vs. Refiners
COMEX vault inflows over the past months have been evenly split:
Who Is Taking London Metal?
Hedgers with net short positions on COMEX are the primary actors securing London metal.
LBMA’s Official Position on Metal Availability
The LBMA denied any shortage of physical gold, attributing delivery delays to logistics rather than supply constraints.
What about Silver?
LBMA executives mocked the SilverSqueeze narrative
What is Gold’s Relationship with Global Trade?
One LBMA official commented that gold tends to rise when global trade contracts, stating that trade is currently shrinking.
H/t PMBug on X/Twitter and his Precious Metals Bug Forum
GoldFix Observations
Whether the issue is a lack of immediately available metal, logistical constraints, or both, one thing is clear:
The outdated response of globalized supranational centralizing institutions to rising gold demand since 2020 stands in stark contrast to the decentralized ways gold can now be acquired—such as through blockchain. This shift, combined with the global multipolar realignment (e.g., BRICS) and gold’s formal return as a Tier 1 asset under Basel III—ironically established in their own system—signals deep structural problems at the top. The world has changed. It is time for the Gold business model to adapt to those secular global changes.
News/Analysis:
Markets Recap:
US equities were mixed on Tuesday after Fed Chair Powell reiterated that the FOMC can take its time to cut near-term rates. Large caps bested small caps: S&P 500 (+0.03%) vs. Russell 2000 (-0.53%). MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) fell 0.39% and MSCI EAFE (EFA) gained 0.47% respectively.
Market News:
“Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a simple message to Congress to start two days of testimony on Tuesday: Because the economy is doing well, the Fed can take its time to decide when and whether to lower interest rates... Looking ahead, Powell said the Fed could keep rates on hold for much longer if inflation doesn’t continue to move down to its target and the economy remains solid. He said the Fed could cut rates if the labor market weakened unexpectedly or inflation made faster-than-expected progress declining to its 2% goal. Powell repeated his view that the neutral interest rate had moved up meaningfully from very low levels before the pandemic.” WSJ
“Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell asserted Tuesday that the central bank will not develop its own digital currency as long as he is in charge. CNBC
“Tesla shares fell 6% on Tuesday and have dropped for five straight days, wiping out over $200 billion in market cap. CNBC
“A brief revival in [Chinese] home sales has fizzled despite multiple rounds of stimulus from President Xi Jinping’s government. Bloomberg
“CATL, the world’s largest electric vehicle battery maker, has filed an application for a secondary listing in Hong Kong, in what could be the city’s largest stock offering in years. FT
“Elon Musk’s offer for the assets of OpenAI could end up costing Sam Altman, whether he takes it or not. WSJ
Geopolitics/ Politics
Israeli PM Netanyahu said if Hamas does not return hostages by Saturday noon, the ceasefire will end
US President Trump said when asked about Israeli annexation of the West Bank that it is going to work out with the US to run Gaza very properly and is not going to buy it. Furthermore Trump thinks there will be parcels of land in Jordan and in Egypt where Palestinians will live and does not think Hamas will make the Saturday deadline for the hostage release.
Egypt plans to offer a comprehensive proposal to rebuild Gaza while ensuring Palestinians remain on their land and looks forward to cooperating with US President Trump to achieve a comprehensive and just peace in the region. Egypt also affirmed the rejection of any proposal to allocate land to Gaza residents.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Ukrainian President Zelensky stated in a recent interview with AFP that he is willing to swap Russian territory captured by Ukraine in the Kursk region for Ukrainian territory captured by Russia in the east in a negotiated peace settlement to end the ongoing war.
US President Trump said on Truth that he will send US Treasury Secretary Bessent to Ukraine to meet Zelensky, while he added the war must end and will end soon.
Polish armed forces said a Russian military jet intruded into Polish airspace on Tuesday.
ASIA
US Navy confirmed two US warships carried out a north-to-south Taiwan Strait transit and said it was routine, while China's military organised its naval and air force to monitor US ships crossing the Taiwan Strait from Feb. 10th-12th.
China's Taiwan Affairs Office said it resolutely opposes and will never allow any foreign interference, while it has full confidence and sufficient ability to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity. It also said the US should prudently and properly handle Taiwan-related issues and not send wrong signals to independence separatist forces.- dont start a color war
via Newssquawk
Data on Deck: CPI, PPI
MONDAY, FEB. 10 None scheduled
TUESDAY, FEB. 116 Jerome Powell testifies to Congress
WEDNESDAY, FEB. 12 CPI and Powell Testifies day 2
THURSDAY, FEB. 13 Producer price index
FRIDAY, FEB. 14 Retail sales1
Final Market Check
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