Housekeeping: Good Morning.
“The Gold reset is a process, not an event”
Today
Discussion:
What Must Trump Do To Succeed?
TL/DR
Persistent deficits short circuit capital investment cycles and kill growth
We weren’t crazy.. constantly spending without saving cant go on forever…
The Fed must Monetize the Debt
98% of all dollars are not tied to economic productivity…
Unemployment must rise or productivity must drop.
Unemployment must rise…
Odds are Against all this happening
If Trump cant get this in play in his first 100 days, he goes from a guy with a mandate, to a lame duck as Senators look to get re-elected and will fight for whatever voters are crying about.. be it unemployment or inflation…
Complete Analysis at Bottom
News/Analysis:
Equity Recap:
The S&P 500 closed at a record high on Monday. Large caps bested small caps: S&P 500 (+0.24%) vs. Russell 2000 (-0.02%). MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) and MSCI EAFE (EFA) added 0.39% and 0.28% respectively.
Market News:
"A top Federal Reserve official has warned the US central bank’s progress on curbing inflation “may be stalling”, even as he threw his support behind a cut in interest rates later this month. Christopher Waller, a Fed governor who sits on the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee, on Monday said he backed the central bank lowering rates at its December 17-18 meeting... New York Fed president John Williams acknowledged in separate remarks on Monday that it would “take some time” for the inflation goal to be reached because of “uneven” progress." Source: FT
"SpaceX is in discussions to sell insider shares that could boost the value of Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite company to around $350 billion... It would also cement SpaceX’s status as the most valuable private startup in the world. Bloomberg
"General Motors is backing out of a nearly completed electric-vehicle battery plant in Michigan, agreeing to unload its stake in the new plant to its Korean partner, LG Energy Solution WSJ
"A judge in Delaware has rebuffed Tesla’s attempt to revive a $56bn pay package for Elon Musk, saying that shareholders’ overwhelming re-approval was not enough to override her previous rejection of the package. Source: FT
Politics/Geopolitics:
US officials are concerned Lebanon ceasefire could unravel, according to Axios' Ravid.
US President-elect Trump warned there will be all hell to pay in the Middle East if Gaza hostages are not released prior to his January 20th inauguration.
Israeli PM Netanyahu said Hezbollah firing at Har Dov is a serious violation of the Lebanon ceasefire and they will respond strongly
Israeli military said it attacked dozens of Hezbollah targets but also stated that Israel remains obligated to fulfil the ceasefire.
US Secretary of State Blinken met with Israel's Strategic Affairs Minister Dermer and reiterated the importance of ending the Gaza war.
Syrian Armed Opposition Operations Department said they took control of Halfaya, Maardis and Taiba al-Imam in the northern countryside of Hama, according to Al Jazeera.
US State Department announced new military assistance for Ukraine worth USD 725mln.
NATO chief Rutter warned US President-elect Trump of a 'dire threat' to the US if Ukraine is pushed into a bad peace deal, according to FT.
Data on Deck: Unemployment
MONDAY, DEC. 2 U.S. manufacturing PMI
TUESDAY, DEC. 3 Auto sales
WEDNESDAY, DEC. 4 ADP employment, PMI
THURSDAY, DEC. 5 Initial jobless claims
FRIDAY, DEC. 6 U.S. employment report
FINAL MARKET CHECK…
Premium:
1- What Must Trump Do To Succeed?
2- Steven Blitz on Interest Expenses…
