Housekeeping: there will be multiple posts today as we share smaller pieces seen recently
Bretton Woods Three is a Process, Not an Event
Gold rallied from $834 at the end of 2007 to an 2011 peak of $1,921. We see parallels.- M. McGlone
Today:
The GFC revisited
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Yesterday’s Activity:
US equities retreated on Tuesday amid concerns about rising oil prices and bond yields.— SPX +0.11% at 5,211, NDX +0.21% at 18,160, DJIA -0.11% at 39,127, RUT +0.54% at 2,076.
Market Commentary:
The lowest CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) and highest US T-bill rates since about 2007 may be a foundation for gold to head toward round-number resistance of around $3,000 an ounce, and WTI crude oil to revisit its enduring support/pivot at about $50 a barrel. A bit of reversion in stock-market volatility may be a top commodity force in 2024. (04/02/24)
Full analysis and slides in Premium
Price Action
Gold-
Silver-
Miners-
Oil-
BTC/ETH-
Stocks-
Bonds-
Dollar-
Market News:
Fed Chair Powell said if the economy evolves as the Fed expects, most on the FOMC expect to cut rates later this year and it is too soon to say if the recent inflation readings are more than just a bump. Powell said inflation expectations are consistent with 2% inflation and the Fed is committed to returning inflation to the 2% target over time. Furthermore, he said policy is restrictive and is doing its job, while he repeated that there are risks of cutting rates too soon as well as waiting too long.
"Inflation was falling in late 2023, but there were several upside surprises in that data during the first quarter of this year. “The Fed thinks it’s eventually going to come down to a 2% inflation rate. ... I think that’s going to be hard,” Cohen told CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin on “Squawk Box.” Cohen also said the current market rally is not a bubble like 1999′s dot-com boom and is instead due in part to investors pricing in future growth from artificial intelligence." Source: CNBC
"Google is working on the biggest shake-up of its search business by charging for new “premium” features powered by generative artificial intelligence, the first time it would put any of its core product behind a paywall. Source: FT
"Amazon is slashing hundreds of jobs from its cloud-computing business, the tech giant’s latest round of layoffs as it aims to cut costs. Source: WSJ
"Apple has teams investigating a push into personal robotics, a field with the potential to become one of the company’s ever-shifting “next big things"... Engineers at Apple have been exploring a mobile robot that can follow users around their homes... The iPhone maker also has developed an advanced table-top home device that uses robotics to move a display around." Source: Bloomberg
"Walt Disney shareholders handed Chief Executive Officer Bob Iger a big vote of confidence, rejecting dissident investor Nelson Peltz’s bid for a board seat at the giant entertainment company. Source: Bloomberg
"Intel shares dropped 8% Wednesday after the company disclosed long-awaited financials for its semiconductor manufacturing, or foundry, business, revealing an operating loss of $7 billion in 2023. It was the first time Intel had reported revenue totals for its foundry arm alone, separating it from the products business." Source: CNBC
Israeli Defence Minister said they are expanding their operation against Hezbollah and other entities that threaten them, according to Al Jazeera.
US President Biden is to speak with Israeli PM Netanyahu on Thursday,
US Pentagon said Defence Secretary Austin spoke with Israeli Defence Minister Gallant on Wednesday and expressed his outrage at the Israeli strike on a World Central Kitchen humanitarian aid convoy.
Tokyo is in talks with Manila over sending troops to the Philippines in which a possible deployment comes as they boost efforts to deter China in the South China Sea, according to FT.
Some headlines via NewSquawk or DataTrek
Data on Deck:
MONDAY, APRIL 1 9:45 am S&P U.S. manufacturing PMI
TUESDAY, APRIL 2 10:00 am Factory orders Feb, speakers
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 3 10:00 am ISM services March 52.6% 52.6% 12:00 pm, speakers
THURSDAY, APRIL 4 8:30 am Initial jobless claims March , speakers
FRIDAY, APRIL 5 8:30 am U.S. nonfarm payrolls am U.S. unemployment rate 1
