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Confirmed: Silver and Gold Beat All Since 2019

Premium: Goldman's 5D's of Commodities

Housekeeping: Good Morning.

BW3 is a process, not an event.

Today:

  • Premium: Goldman’s 5 Ds on Commodities, ING on China effect

  • Commentary: Silver and Gold are better than almost all other investments


Session Recap:

US equities retreated on Wednesday as Treasury yields increased.


Premium Markets: Goldman’s 5 Ds

We remain selectively bullish commodities and expect commodity total returns to rise from 13% YTD to 18% by year-end.

We see the 5D bull market trends will create structural opportunities in commodities: Disinvestment, Decarbonization & climate change, De-risking (hedging), Datacenters & AI, Defense spending.

Includes refreshed price targets for Gold, Oil, and Copper

Continues at bottom…

Rates of Return and Risk

on Substack

Semper on X/Twitter

Market News: Never Trust Indices

"BHP Group decided against making a firm offer for Anglo American, instead walking away for now from what would have been the biggest mining deal in over a decade. The announcement... marked an abrupt end to the five-week public battle between two of mining’s biggest names." Source: Bloomberg

ConocoPhillips has agreed to acquire Marathon Oil in an all-stock deal valued at $17.1 billion in a bid to catch up with rivals as drillers race to secure new oil and gas wells.. Source: WSJ

"The Cleveland Federal Reserve has appointed Beth Hammack, Goldman Sachs’s former head of global lending, to replace departing president and chief executive Loretta Mester later this year. Source: FT

"Salesforce shares plummeted as much as 17% in extended trading on Wednesday after the cloud software vendor reported weaker-than-expected revenue and issued guidance that trailed Wall Street’s expectations." Source: CNBC

Geopolitics:

  • "Israel's army said Hamas is in Rafah and is holding Israeli hostages, so they are launching military operations there and will not stop fighting in Rafah until the hostages are freed.

  • Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said China could arrange a peace conference in which Russia and Ukraine would participate, while he added that Russia regards planned supplies of F-16 fighters to Ukraine as a "signal action" by NATO in a nuclear area, according to RIA.

Some headlines via NewSquawk or DataTrek


Data on Deck: GDP, PCE Week

  • MONDAY, MAY 27 Memorial Day

  • TUESDAY, MAY 28 speakers and 10:00 am Consumer confidence

  • WEDNESDAY, MAY 29 2:00 pm Fed Beige Book

  • THURSDAY, MAY 30 8:30 am GDP + +

  • FRIDAY, MAY 31 8:30 am PCE index April 1


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GoldFix
GoldFix
Capital markets recap, commentary, and analysis for evolving traders