Housekeeping: Good Morning.
“Just a reminder the fed has been fighting "transitory" inflation since 4th quarter 2022. We are now entering 2nd quarter 2024 - inflation is still red hot... and now this clown comes out and says "its [gonna] take longer". That’s 6 quarters of ineffective solution to inflation. Meanwhile American families are skipping meals and medicines to live. You suck at your job- you should all be fired.” -Frank Oz
F*ck Jerome Powell -VBL
Today:
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Commentary: FOMC Arrogance
Markets Yesterday:
US equities were mixed on Wednesday as Fed Chair Powell said a rate hike was unlikely even amid continued strong economic data.
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FOMC Powell Press Conference.
"The Federal Reserve acknowledged a recent setback in its inflation fight but said it was more likely to keep interest rates at their current level for longer than to raise them again... Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the bar to cut interest rates had gone up, but that the bar to hike rates was even higher."
Powell denied chances of a rate hike
Market interprets Powell’s speech as dovish
Fed denies stagflation risk
Stocks chopped/ The dollar weakened/ Gold rose
Which is the definition of stagflationary behavior
Powell “Doesn't See the Stag or the 'flation"
Remember Transitory?
Arrogance Resurfaces…
Do not forget this: While the Fed has apologized and moved on for their “transitory” mistake, Some families are currently deciding if they should eat dinner or buy medicine. Most families are still living with the ramifications of Powell’s mistake. Powell’s family is not.
His policy error was bad enough. But his mistake was arrogance. And he’s showing arrogance again. He has not learned his lesson
Almost 3 years after they said inflation would be transitory, they are still fighting it.
18 months after the Fed started fighting inflation, it has remained strong
Gold and Stocks - The Metal May Take 2024 Medal
(Bloomberg Intelligence) Sticky inflation appears connected to speculative excesses in Bitcoin and equity prices, with implications for some back-and-fill in beta before the Federal Reserve risks easing.
What's disconcerting about gold making record highs and the S&P 500 and Bitcoin declining is that there might be ample fuel for continuation.
At about $2,300 an ounce on April 30, the highest ever month-end price for gold may show the metal's upper hand vs. beta and Bitcoin,
Gold beating the S&P 500 this year and since 2021 may suggest a US recession has been delayed, but is coming
Gold's Foundation May Be Firming vs. S&P 500…
More at bottom…
Market News:
"The Federal Reserve acknowledged a recent setback in its inflation fight but said it was more likely to keep interest rates at their current level for longer than to raise them again... Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the bar to cut interest rates had gone up, but that the bar to hike rates was even higher." Source: WSJ
"Starbucks, Pizza Hut and KFC are among the chains that reported same-store sales declines this quarter. Source: CNBC
"Alphabet paid Apple $20 billion in 2022 for Google to be the default search engine in the Safari browser, Source: Bloomberg
"Exxon Mobil is set to close its $60 billion megadeal for Pioneer Natural Resources following an agreement with antitrust enforcers Source: WSJ
"Just ahead of its blowout first-quarter earnings report on April 25, Google laid off at least 200 employees from its “Core” teams, Source: CNBC
Geopolitics:
Israeli military chief Halevi said the offensive in Gaza will continue and Israel is preparing for an offensive in the north, according to Sky News Arabia.
US State Department said Russia breached the global chemical weapons ban in the Ukraine war.
US imposed fresh Russia-related sanctions on hundreds of people and entities which target companies connected to Russia's Arctic LNG 2 project, according to the Treasury website. US issued sanctions on more than a dozen China and Hong Kong-based companies as part of Russia action, while it imposed sanctions on Russian air carrier Pobeda which is a subsidiary of Aeroflot.
Some headlines via NewSquawk or DataTrek
Data on Deck:
MONDAY, APRIL 29None scheduledTUESDAY, APRIL 30 9:00 am S&P Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities)
WEDNESDAY, MAY 1 2:00 pm FOMC interest-rate decision 2:30 pm Fed Chair Powell press conferenceTHURSDAY, MAY 2 8:30 am Initial jobless claims April 27
FRIDAY, MAY 3 8:30 am U.S. employment report April1
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