Housekeeping: Good Morning.
“The first attacks on the territory of the Russian Federation using US weapons may begin within hours or days", according to Sky News Arabia
Today:
Premium: The Election will Not be over until January
Commentary: Trump Verdict, Divided We fall
Session Recap:
US equities retreated on Thursday amid a slew of corporate earnings reports and ahead of key inflation data out today
Premium Markets: Uncertainty Rules
Trump Found Guilty, and will appeal
Biden’s legal team will go state by state seeking to minimize his electoral footprint while Trumps will seek to counter that
This will damage Trump’s totals, but it also may damage Bidens in terms of turnout
The election will not be over until January if either of them runs and loses
The BRICS summit will be right before our election.
Expect Gold, Silver, and Vix to climb between now and then unless certainty returns
Speaking specifically to uncertainty TS Lombard says this…
Depending upon who wins, looking ahead:
If Biden wins: Electoral fraud cases and similar challenges from Trump are likely
If Trump wins: Possible constitutional crisis or a repeat of Jan 6 likely
Evidence to that effect:
In a leading indicator of rising risks of post-election market volatility, both the Biden and Trump campaigns have been beefing up their legal teams on the expectation of a prolonged bout of post-election legal mayhem.
Market News:
"The US economy grew at a slower pace in the first quarter than initially reported, primarily reflecting softer consumer spending on goods. Source: Bloomberg
"The staggering electricity demand needed to power next-generation technology is forcing the US to rely on yesterday’s fuel source: coal. Source: FT
"US officials have slowed the issuing of licenses to chipmakers such as Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices for large-scale AI accelerator shipments to the Middle East... Source: Bloomberg
Geopolitics: Bombing Russia More
Senior Israeli Security Official says there will be no truce or any halt in fighting in Gaza which is not part-and-parcel of a hostage release deal
Deputy Chairman of Russia's Security Council says the use of long-range weapons against Russia could become a reason to go to war with NATO.
"Ukrainian media: The first attacks on the territory of the Russian Federation using US weapons may begin within hours or days", according to Sky News Arabia
China has told other governments it will not join the Swiss peace conference on Ukraine and said the peace conference does not meet its conditions since Russia is not attending, according to Reuters sources.
North Korean leader Kim guided a demonstration of large-scale multiple rocket launchers, according to KCNA.
Some headlines via NewSquawk or DataTrek
Data on Deck: GDP, PCE Week
MONDAY, MAY 27Memorial DayTUESDAY, MAY 28speakers and 10:00 am Consumer confidenceWEDNESDAY, MAY 292:00 pm Fed Beige BookTHURSDAY, MAY 308:30 am GDP + +FRIDAY, MAY 31 8:30 am PCE index April 1
Goldman on PCE:
PCE: "We estimate that core PCE increased 0.26% M/M, a pace well below the 0.36% average of the prior three months, but probably not sufficient for a July cut if maintained in May and June."
Goldman recently pushed its first rate cut forecast from July to September.
Premium:
About: this excellent ongoing coverage by TS Lombard
We take stock of the top issues on voters’ minds and highlight the biggest wild cards that could swing the race – both in the form of third-party candidates led by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and the potential to trigger a constitutional crisis before Inauguration Day. Making outcomes even more unpredictable as the campaign season increasingly moves into full swing.
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