Housekeeping: Good afternoon. 1
Short report. Most of Hartnett’s work this week was in his monthly GFMS chart book, excerpts of which2 are included as well in a 2 for 1 post.
Report’s Main Ideas: Vulnerability
Title: Market not taking tariffs/trade war seriously, may change April 2,; wealth-effect on spending, fiscal excess as reasons for last 5 years. Market may be correct, but positioning is asymmetrically long i.e- Powell put
Key Moments:
2:46- Stock correlation problems
9:22- BIG Update/ Germany’s spending
15:03- Hartnett thinks Yield Curve Inversion again
18:20- Yield Curve told Powell not to cut last year
*21:05- His main point- Global Stocks Are very vulnerable to Tariffs
33:57- Linda Raschke and a stock trade idea
37:35- Charts of the month
40:20- How to use one of his key survey charts
Comment: Hartnett’s tone change from “ We’re Long International Stocks” to “Better than US stocks” echoes Dario Perkins parallel piece stating: A US recession would bring down the entire world. (Doomer headline, well reasoned piece). We suggest reading it if you want more on Hartnett’s opinion from a different angle.
