Housekeeping: Good Afternoon. Hartnett’s Weekly report is presented 3 ways: 1) Video walk-through with analytical comments transcribed, 2) Hartnett’s main points broken out below, 3) and original format at bottom. Enjoy.
0:00- TL;DR Intro
6:00- Extended Report Walkthrough
"People underestimate how much lower rates may need to go to stimulate a weak economy no longer juiced by government spending."
-Michael Hartnett
TL; DR
Hartnett for the past year has been saying despite what many others say, you sell the market after the first rate cut. Today, he reiterates and bolsters his case His reasons, boiled down is this and covered in detail below:
He believeswe are in an Anti-Goldilocks (our words, his reasons)1 world now.2 and that means you sell the 1st cut
Sahm rule says recession is here (as of Friday)
Soft-landing trade very crowded, Hard landing signs growing
One cut will likely not be enough
China may really be the new Japan
Context 1: When Hartnett First Said “Sell the First Rate Cut”
Hartnett, for the past year has been saying (despite what others say), you should sell the market after the first rate cut here. His reason, broadly speaking is the following:
