Housekeeping: Good Morning.
“The Gold reset is a process, not an event”
Today
Discussion: J.P. Morgan Upgrades Mining Sector on China Stimulus and Copper Upside
Premium: GS on Copper
Analysis:
J.P. Morgan Upgrades Mining Sector
J.P. Morgan has shifted its stance on the mining and metals sector, upgrading it from “underweight” to “overweight” in a note published Monday. The move reflects a change in outlook, with the bank pointing to improving fundamentals and a potential rebound in commodity prices — especially copper.
The strategists describe what they see as a “V-shaped” recovery emerging in late Q1 2025. A big part of that rebound is being driven by increased economic stimulus from China, alongside tightening supply-demand dynamics in industrial metals.
It’s a significant shift after years of poor performance. Mining stocks have underperformed broader markets for some time — trailing the MSCI Europe Index by roughly 50% in dollar terms since January 2023. They've also lagged behind industrial metal prices by about 20% since early 2024, according to the bank’s strategists.
That gap, they argue, isn’t normal — and it’s catching investor attention. “Mining and metals equities are lagging the commodities they’re linked to,” the note says. That disconnect has mostly been driven by cautious investor positioning and uncertainty around policy direction, particularly out of China.
Now, with policy momentum shifting, J.P. Morgan sees the opportunity for a catch-up trade. The firm points to a September 2024 pivot by Chinese policymakers toward looser economic measures, followed by a March 2025 fiscal stimulus package. These moves, they argue, are already starting to impact demand.
On the supply side, inventories are running low. The bank’s commodities team now forecasts copper prices climbing 15% to $11,500 per metric ton by Q2 2026. That projection supports their call that mining stocks could be set for a significant re-rating if sentiment continues to shift.
Context makes this significant:
March 15th: BOA asks: who’s exposed most to gold price changes?
March 21st: Trump EO Invokes Wartime Powers to Expand Critical Mineral Output
March 24th: RBC’s The Gold Standard, Miners with exposure to Spot Gold and Silver
Goldman Sachs Sees Upside
The Expected S232 Tariff Has Prompted the COMEX Outperformance, But Has Also Lifted the LME Price
While We Think the Recent Test of $10,000/t Is Premature, We Hold to Our 6 Month Price Target of $10,000/t
We Maintain Our Bullish $10,200/t Q4 2025 Forecast on the Back of Strong Electrification Demand, China Stimulus and Slower Mine Supply Growth. We remain structurally bullish.
GS Full note at Bottom…
Featured:
Markets Recap:
Stocks ended slightly higher as investors assessed latest economic data and U.S. trade policies. Benchmark Treasury yields slipped on weaker consumer confidence data. The dollar inched lower as traders remained cautious on tariffs, boosting safe-haven gold. Oil prices edged higher on supply concerns.
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Geopolitics/ Politics:
H/t Newsquawk for Geopol
Data on Deck: FOMC
MONDAY, MARCH 24 PMI
TUESDAY, MARCH 25 New home sales
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 26 Durable-goods
THURSDAY, MARCH 27 GDP
FRIDAY, MARCH 28 PCE1
Summary and Final Market Check
