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LBMA Silver and Hong Kong Gold

Market Rundown |
10

Housekeeping: Good Morning.

“The Gold reset is a process, not an event”

Today:

  • Discussion: LBMA Silver and Hong Kong Gold

  • Analysis: Goldman on Aussie Miners


Discussion: LBMA Silver and Hong Kong Gold

LBMA 2024: Silver Over Gold This Year

Here’s what the LBMA survey found:

  • Silver: 45% expecting it to outperform in the precious metals sector.

  • Gold: 37% of attendees expect gold to remain a strong performer. On average, gold prices are forecasted to hit $2,941.40 an ounce by this time next year

  • Platinum: 16% of participants expecting platinum to shine in the next 12 months.

  • Palladium: Only 2% of delegates see palladium outperforming.

Last year, LBMA delegates underestimated gold’s potential, predicting prices around $1,990 per ounce. Fast forward a year, and gold has risen by a third, with prices now hovering around $2,661.90.

The question you have to ask yourself is this: Do you believe them.

The HK Gold Connection Grows Under Pressure

Hong Kong aims to leverage its position as one of the largest global markets for gold import and export to become an international gold trading hub, according to John Lee, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR).

This initiative is one of several key measures aimed at reinforcing Hong Kong’s role as a global financial center. Lee also announced plans to deepen mutual market access and expand Hong Kong's offshore renminbi (RMB) business.


News/Analysis:


Equity Recap:

US equities rallied on Wednesday after positive corporate earnings reports. Large caps lagged small caps: S&P 500 (+0.47%) vs. Russell 2000 (+1.64%). MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) and MSCI EAFE (EFA) rose 0.77% and 0.26% respectively.


Market News: Reality Bites Back

"ASML Chief Executive Officer Christophe Fouquet said he expects the chip market’s long-awaited recovery will extend “well into 2025,” following disappointing third-quarter earnings that sparked a broad selloff across the semiconductor industry..: Bloomberg

"The biggest US investment banks generated $36bn in revenues from deals and trading in the last quarter, as volatile markets and corporate debt issuance fuelled a rebound on Wall Street.FT

"Amazon Web Services is investing more than $500 million in nuclear power, announcing three projects from Virginia to Washington state.: CNBC

"Luxury shares tumbled on Wednesday after industry bellwether LVMH reported a bigger than expected fall in quarterly sales due to weak consumer demand in China...: FT

"United Airlines said Tuesday that it is starting a $1.5 billion share buyback as the carrier reported higher-than-expected earnings for the busy summer travel season and forecast higher airfares into 2025." Source: CNBC

"US carmaker General Motors has increased its investment in a lithium mine to nearly $1bn : FT

"US mortgage rates rose sharply for a second straight week, reaching the highest level since early August while prompting steep declines in both home-purchase and refinance activity. Bloomberg


Politics/Geopolitics: No 3 Front War.. time is Up soon

  • Israeli source cited by ABC said PM Netanyahu agreed to a set of targets to be hit inside of Iran without specifying a timeline for the attack, according to Al Jazeera.

  • Israeli PM Netanyahu said he held an emergency discussion on increasing aid to Gaza, according to Reuters citing three Israeli officials.

  • Israeli officials have been assuring their US counterparts that Israel will act quickly to improve the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza following an ultimatum from the Biden administration, according to two Israeli officials cited by Axios.

  • US President Biden's envoy told aid groups that Israel is too close an ally for the US to suspend arms, 

  • North Korea said roads and railways with South Korea were completely cut off under its constitution that defines the South as a hostile state,


Data on Deck:

  • MONDAY, OCT. 14 Columbus Day holiday. Bond market closed.3:00 pm

  • TUESDAY, OCT. 15 Empire State manufacturing survey

  • WEDNESDAY, OCT. 16 Import price index

  • THURSDAY, OCT. 17 U.S. retail sales

  • FRIDAY, OCT. 18 Housing starts

FINAL MARKET CHECK


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