MARKETS: China Gets its Groove Back... Trump's Chances

Housekeeping: Good Morning. Transcript tabbed.

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*** Silver CTAs begin to buy, China relief, RRR described **

Contents

1. Yesterday’s Activity

2. Today’s Prices

3. Today’s Data

4. Markets/Metals Commentary

5. Attached- Goldman on Trump’s Election chances

Markets Covered:

Metals, Energy, Crypto, Bonds, Stocks

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Yesterday’s Activity:

Stock Meltup

• Commodities- stronger. base metals lead, ,precious followed. Perhaps china rumors

• US equities- advanced slightly on Tuesday, big cap over small cap, The Nasdaq gained | earnings digesting

• Bonds- slightly weaker- noise

• DX- volatile on JPY and China policy events

h/t DataTrek

Quick Look:

Equities soar post-PBoC RRR cuts, NFLX +9.7% pre-market, Dollar weaker & GBP bid post-PMI; US PMI due- NS

Weaker dollar vs Yen and Euro. Base metals rally day 2. Precious metals rally. Silver leads again. Muted moves vs dollar weaker, pronounced vs stronger dx… changes in the making maybe. Oil chop. BTC bounce. Stocks slightly firmer. Bonds nowhere

Positions: short (small) gold initiated 2 weeks ago, long (medium) silver from 2 days ago. Short volatility in both

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Week’s Data:

Earnings, LEI, PMI, PCE, and GDP

• MONDAY, JAN. 22 10:00 am LEI

• TUESDAY, JAN. 23 None scheduled

• WEDNESDAY, JAN. 24 9:45 am PMI

• THURSDAY, JAN. 25 8:30 am Q4 GDP

• FRIDAY, JAN. 26 8:30 PCE

Total Calendar¹

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News:

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• PBoC Governor says will use various policy tools to keep liquidity reasonably ample, will improve credit structure, and step up support for private firms and small firms; Will keep CNY exchange rate basically stable.

• PBoC says it will cut its RRR by 0.5ppts from Feb 5th and will continue to use liquidity injection tools; PBoC Governor says RRR levels are still relatively high; RRR cut is to release CNY 1tln into the economy

GEOPOLITICS

A one-month Gaza truce is the focus of intensive mediation efforts by Qatar, US and Egypt

North Korea fired multiple cruise missiles into the Yellow Sea

Reports of imminent agreement with Hamas on detainees are untrue

some headlines via NewSquawk

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Markets/Metals Commentary:

• Chart walkthrough

• Gold-

• Silver-

• Crypto-

• Oil-

• Stocks-