Housekeeping: Good Morning.
Debate: At this point, seeing what we saw last night, it is as much a comment on Joe Biden's ability to command as it is on the deep state of Apparatchiks who need him to win to keep their own power. There are institutions that will do anything to make sure that they don't lose command of their positions in society.
Today:
Premium: Special MSA Gold Comment and Bank’s Insightful Copper Comment
Commentary: Debate Debacle Creates Uncertainty
Session Recap:
US equities closed mostly flat on Thursday ahead of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge out
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Micheal Oliver and UBS Gold, Silver, and Copper:
When will the Copper bottom be in, and when will buyers return
What will it take to get Gold and silver out of their respective ranges
(about $20 higher in Gold, and about 30c higher in Silver.
Details at bottom
Michael Oliver: Gold’s Range May Be Ending….
Continues in Premium
Comment: About the Debate Debacle
What it means for markets if Trump wins
Lower interest rates, less fiscal spending, higher cyclical stocks, lower tech stocks, stronger bonds, higher gold, higher unemployment lower bad inflation.
We have made reports to this effect available to premium subscribers over the last few months
Market News: PCE
Goldman’s Note today says: In the day ahead there are a number of things to contend with –in the US we get the core PCE prints albeit they should be limited room for surprise after yesterday’s data. Our economists are looking for core to come it at +0.13% m/m corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.61% which is in line with consensus.
"US rules curbing the export of artificial intelligence chips to China are beginning to squeeze the country's AI industry. Source: The Information
Nike cut its full-year guidance and said it expects sales to drop 10% during its current quarter as it warned of soft sales in China.Source: CNBC
"Retailer traders took Nvidia’s recent sell-off as a buying opportunity, snapping up shares of the dominant artificial intelligence chipmaker amid the volatility. Source: CNBC
"Amazon is planning to fight back against rising competition from rivals Temu and Shein, mirroring their business models with a new direct-from-China discount section.Source: FT
"Walgreens reported fiscal third-quarter earnings that fell short of expectations and slashed its full-year adjusted profit outlook due to a “challenging” environment for pharmacies and U.S. consumers .Source: CNBC
Debate Highlights:
CNN poll showed about 67% of debate followers saw Trump as the winner; 81% of registered voters who watched the debate said it had no effect on their choice for President, 5% said the debate made them change their mind on whom to vote for.
Following the debate, Politico reports that some Democrats were so concerned by Biden's performance that they are discussing replacing him on the ticket; however, the likes of Governor Newsom said that kind of talk is “unhelpful” and “unnecessary”. Additionally, advisors acknowledged that not much is possible unless Biden steps aside.
US President Biden said during the first presidential debate that the US economy was falling when Trump came out of the presidency and that the Trump economy rewarded the rich and raised the deficit, while he said that Trump exaggerates and lies about border security in which everything he says is a lie.
Former President Trump said they had the greatest economy in the history of the US under his administration and had the greatest economy in the world but Biden did something disastrous by encouraging illegal immigrants, while he added that immigrants from everywhere flock to the US because of Biden and are killing US citizens. Trump also said he achieved a lot in the field of economics and that inflation is currently killing the US which became a third-world country under the Biden administration, as well as noted that tariffs will reduce deficits and check countries like China. Furthermore, Trump said there was no terror under his administration and that the world is blowing up under Biden, while he added Iran was broke and Hamas would never attack Israel under his administration, as well as claimed that he would have the war between Russia and Ukraine settled before he takes office.
Some headlines via NewSquawk or DataTrek
Data on Deck:
MONDAY, JUNE 24speechesTUESDAY, JUNE 25speeches, S&P Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities)WEDNESDAY, JUNE 2610:00 am New home sales MayTHURSDAY, JUNE 27Pending home sales May 1.0% -7.7%FRIDAY, JUNE 28 8:30 am PCE (year-over-year) 2.6% 2.7% 8:30 am 1
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Gold, Silver, and Copper:
When will the copper bottom be in, and when will buyers return, plus a very Kind word about UBS
What will it take to get Gold and silver out of their respective ranges
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