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The Fed is dead, China buys the dip, and Goldman Says the 70s are back

Morning Meeting

Housekeeping: Good Morning.

Bretton Woods Three is a Process, Not an Event

Government intervention can only speed up or slow down a trend . It cannot change a trend’s direction


  • The Fed is dead, China buys the dip and Goldman Says the 70s are back

  • Premium: Goldman says the 1970s are back

Yesterday’s Activity:

US equities rallied on Friday after a stronger than expected March jobs report.

  • SPX +1.11% at 5,204, NDX +1.28% at 18,108, DJI +0.80% at 38,904, RUT +0.47% at 2,063

Premium: Goldman Says The1970s Are Back

Despite falling inflation, the backdrop for these inflation oriented stocks is uniquely good. The lack of investment interest has led to disciplined management teams that are shareholder focused, and valuations, balance sheets and return of capital provide support while waiting for inflation or global growth to inflect, while US growth is above trend.

If capacity or supply becomes a problem, suddenly these companies can over-earn, and the status quo of high free cash flow is pretty solid. Moreover, these companies tend to perform well when Mag7 underperforms, providing portfolio benefit, and also do well during geopolitical flare ups, which have occurred.

  • American Exceptionalism = American isolationism

  • Broken correlations- no they aren’t.. they are moving

  • China rises

Price Action

  • Gold-

  • Silver-

  • Miners-

  • Oil-

  • BTC/ETH-

  • Stocks-

  • Bonds- YCC is coming

  • Dollar-

Market News:

  • "Having more money than you know what to do with used to be a high-quality problem. Now it is just a problem... Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and the parent companies of Google and Facebook now collectively sit on a little more than $570 billion in cash, short-term and long-term investments. That is more than double the collective pile of the next five richest nonfinancial companies on the S&P 500 index... That is an awful lot of capital to have to put to work. And doing so effectively has become an even bigger challenge over the past couple of years, as regulators in the U.S. and around the world have zeroed in on Big Tech, with the determination to keep it from getting bigger." Source: WSJ

  • "When oil jumped above $90 a barrel just days ago, military tensions between Israel and Iran were the immediate trigger. But the rally’s foundations went deeper — Source: Bloomberg

  • "The U.S. labor market surprised economists with its strength once again, adding more than 300,000 jobs in March, with a few key sectors continuing to fuel its growth. Source: CNBC

  • "Food inflation across rich nations has dropped to its lowest level since before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with a slowdown in price growth easing pressure on millions of households hit by the two-year surge in food costs. Source: FT

  • Top MSM News Links


  • "Hamas leading source to Al Jazeera: No progress in negotiations in Cairo and the Israeli delegation did not respond to any of Hamas' demands". Furthermore, "Israeli media: Senior official says gap between Israel and Hamas over possible deal remains large", according to Al Arabiya.

  • Israeli Broadcasting Authority says "any Israeli movement in Rafah will not begin before the end of the talks with Washington", according to Sky News Arabia.

  • "Israeli sources involved in the negotiations: By Tuesday evening we will know if it is possible to proceed with the negotiations and wait for Hamas' response", according to Sky News Arabia

  • Israel launched strikes on Lebanon’s Bekaa

  • Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said Ukraine awaits and needs a big US aid package, while he continues to believe that the US Congress will vote for it.

  • Ukrainian drones reportedly attacked the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Station, according to RIA.

  • more1

Some headlines via NewSquawk or DataTrek

Data on Deck:

  • MONDAY1 pm Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee radio interview None scheduled

  • TUESDAY, APRIL 9 6:00 am NFIB optimism index March 89.7 89.4

  • WEDNESDAY, APRIL 10 8:30 am Consumer price index March 0.3% pm Minutes of Fed's March FOMC meeting

  • THURSDAY, APRIL 11 8:30 am Initial jobless claims April 6 215,000 221,000 8:30 am Producer price index March

  • FRIDAY, APRIL 12 10:00 am Consumer sentiment (prelim) April 78.6% 79.4% 2:30 pm2

Premium: Goldman report at bottom

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