UNLOCKED: Silver, Stock Fears & Regional War

Housekeeping: Good Morning. Transcript tabbed

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***Silver, Stock longs get fearful, Regional War, Complexity Collapse***

Contents

1. Yesterday’s Activity

2. Today’s Prices

3. Today’s Data

4. Markets/Metals Commentary

5. Attached- Silver report later today

Markets:

Commodities, Stocks, Precious Metals, Bonds, BTC, FX

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Yesterday’s Activity:

Retails sales came in strong. Beige Book points to a soft landing as signs the Fed does not need to cut rates aggressively this year.

• US equities retreated on Wednesday. Real estate (-1.87%) and utilities (-1.52%) lagged the broader market indices, while consumer staples (-0.12%) and health care (-0.24%) outperformed

• The Nasdaq lost 0.59%, while tech dropped 0.49%.

• The VIX increased 6.86% to 14.79. The 30-year and 10-year Treasury yields finished at 4.310% and 4.096% respectively, while the 2-year yield ended at 4.346%.

Overnight Activity:

all bounce from yesterday

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Today’s Data:

THURSDAY, JAN. 18

• 8:30 am Initial jobless claims Jan. 13

• 8:30 am Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey Dec. -10.5

• 8:30 am Housing starts Dec. 1.56 million

• 8:30 am Building permits Dec. 1.46 million

• 12:05 pm Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks

Total Calendar¹

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News:

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

US House Speaker Johnson said he had a productive meeting with US President Biden and must insist border be the top priority

MIDDLE EAST

• US Central Command said a drone launched from Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen struck a US-owned vessel

• US military also announced it conducted strikes on 14 Houthi missiles

• Iran blew up something in Pakistan

• Lebanon's Foreign Minister said the war on Lebanon is not easy for Israel and will be a regional war

• Pakistan's armed forces are on "extremely high alert", adds that any more "misadventure" from Iran will be met forcefully

some headlines via NewSquawk

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Markets/Metals Commentary:

• Gold- downtrend unless above 2026

• as long as data keeps coming in inconsistently, the Fed will not cut

• Stock market Put skew returns. Hedgers and pukers 1 out of 3 won’t but should

Next time:

In the book, Tainter argues that complex societies tend to collapse when they can no longer maintain the levels of complexity that they have achieved. This can occur due to various factors such as resource depletion, environmental degradation, or changes in the social, economic, or political landscape.

End

MONDAY, JAN. 15 Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, none scheduled TUESDAY, JAN. 16 11:00 am Fed Gov. Christopher Waller speaks WEDNESDAY, JAN. 17 8:30 am Import price index Dec. -0.4% 8:30 am Import price index minus fuel Dec. 0.2% 8:30 am U.S. retail sales Dec. 0.3% 8:30 am Retail sales minus autos Dec. 0.2% 9:15 am Industrial production Dec. 0.2% 9:15 am Capacity utilization Dec. 78.8% 2:00 pm Fed Beige Book THURSDAY, JAN. 18 8:30 am Initial jobless claims Jan. 13 8:30 am Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey Dec. -10.5 8:30 am Housing starts Dec. 1.56 million 8:30 am Building permits Dec. 1.46 million 12:05 pm Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks FRIDAY, JAN. 19 10:00 am Consumer sentiment (prelim) Jan. 69.7 10:00 am Existing home sales Dec. 3.82 million

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