Housekeeping: Good Morning. —
“The Gold reset is a process, not an event”
Today
Discussion: ANZ on Oil and Gold
Geopolitical uncertainties are keeping oil prices volatile but still net soft. High frequency indicators show a bleak demand outlook, with China’s apparent oil consumption contracting by 4% year-to-date.
Geopolitical uncertainties are keeping oil prices volatile but still net soft….
High frequency indicators show a bleak demand outlook, with China’s apparent oil consumption contracting by 4% year-to-date...
US oil demand is tracking well, and oil processing is at a season high….
Europe is screwed if its cold again. Especially with Any further delay in OPEC’s plan to phase out its voluntary production agreements beyond December will be crucial for the market….
Additionally, the potential impacts of Trump’s policies on Iran’s oil exports will also be significant…
The recent sell-off was driven by de-hedging, a strong USD rebound and expectations of a shallower Fed rate cut cycle. If the Fed skips a rate cut in December, this may subdue the gold price in the short term.
Gold: a short-term correction…
Silver sinks alongside gold but….
An overdue profit booking by investors…
Physical demand is coming back…
Central banks continue to stockpile gold…
The real downside risk may be an opportunity…
News/Analysis:
Equity Recap:
US equities mostly rose on Thursday after Nvidia (+0.53%) beat earnings expectations after the bell yesterday. Large caps lagged small caps: S&P 500 (+0.53%) vs. Russell 2000 (+1.65%). MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) lost 0.21% and MSCI EAFE (EFA) edged up 0.03%.
Market News:
Shares in PDD Holdings fell on Thursday after it missed revenue estimates and warned about “intensified competition”, as it became the latest Chinese technology giant to be hit by the country’s economic slowdown. FT
"Alphabet shares fell 4% on Thursday, after the Department of Justice called for Google to divest its Chrome browser as a remedy to its antitrust case.CNBC
"Ken Griffin said he would consider selling a piece of Citadel, the $65 billion multistrategy hedge fund he founded in 1990. Bloomberg
"Gap raised its guidance ahead of the holiday shopping season as it touted a “strong start” to the all-important fourth quarter. CNBC
"Apple is racing to develop a more conversational version of its Siri digital assistant, aiming to catch up with OpenAI’s ChatGPT and other voice services... Bloomberg
"Northvolt is filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy after Europe’s best-funded start-up and main hope for countering Asian dominance in electric vehicle batteries failed to agree a last-minute rescue package with investors.FT
"[SEC] Chair Gary Gensler will step down as Wall Street’s top regulator at the very end of the Biden administration, he announced Thursday. WSJ
Politics/Geopolitics:
RT: Kiev has launched a long-range missile strike against military facilities located within internationally-recognized Russian territory, President Vladimir Putin said in a public address on Thursday. The Ukrainian military fired British-made Storm Shadows and US-made HIMARS missiles at targets located in Russia's Bryansk and Kursk Regions, he said.
The use of such Western-made systems in the Ukraine conflict has drastically changed its nature, he warned. “A regional Ukraine conflict instigated by the West has acquired elements of a global one,” Putin stated.
These long-range high-precision missile systems cannot be used without the direct involvement of Western military specialists, the president explained.
"The use of such weapons by the enemy cannot affect the course of the situation in the Special Military Operation zone," Putin stressed. He also said it was a big mistake for the US to pull out of the the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019.
Data on Deck: Housing and Talking
MONDAY, NOV. 18 Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee
TUESDAY, NOV. 19 8:30 am Housing
WEDNESDAY, NOV. 20 None scheduled
THURSDAY, NOV. 21 Existing home sales
FRIDAY, NOV. 22 U.S. services PMI/ Consumer sentiment
FINAL MARKET CHECK…
**Premium:
