Housekeeping: Good Morning.
“The Gold reset is a process, not an event”
Today
Discussion: The Trump-Powell Accord
Analysis: The Trump-Powell Accord
Trump to Powell: Lower rates and inflation wont be a problem, I’ll get oil prices lower
Trump to OPEC: Lower oil prices and I’ll weaken the dollar helping your
The Bottom Line is: Tariffs, and tax cuts are the sizzle here. Lower energy and a weaker dollar are the steak. Just as Bessent is advising: and he needs Powell on board to do this.
From January 24ths Trump is Horse-Trading Again
Powell’s Press Conference Pushback
The Fed and the White House are now on the same page.
Powell’s responses on three major topics indicate this shift:
Tariffs and Inflation
Recession Risk
Inflation Expectations and Market Stability
The Trump-Powell Accord and What This Means for Trump’s Economic Strategy
Full Analysis at bottom…
Featured:
Noon Today: Gold Exotic Option Primer— The Casino is Open.
Markets Recap:
Wall Street ended higher, while Treasury yields fell as the Federal Reserve kept benchmark interest rate unchanged. The dollar pared gains against the euro. Oil prices edged up on U.S. fuel demand. Gold continued its rally, hovering near all-time highs.
Market News:
Fed keeps policy rate outlook intact amid projected growth slowdown, temporary inflation jump The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, as expected, but U.S. central bank policymakers indicated they still anticipate reducing borrowing costs by half a percentage point by the end of this year in the context of slowing economic growth and, eventually, a downturn in inflation. Taking stock of the Trump administration's rollout of tariffs, Fed officials actually marked up their outlook for inflation this year, with their preferred measure of price increases expected to end the year at 2.7% versus the 2.5% pace anticipated in December. But they also marked down the outlook for economic growth for this year from 2.1% to 1.7%, with slightly higher unemployment by the end of this year. Policymakers said risks had increased, with a near unanimous sentiment in saying the outlook for the year was muddled. The Fed also said it will slow the ongoing drawdown of its balance sheet, known as quantitative tightening.
Geopolitics/ Politics:
H/t Newsquawk for Geopol
Data on Deck: FOMC
MONDAY, MARCH 17 U.S. retail sales
TUESDAY, MARCH 18 Housing starts
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 19 FOMC interest-rate decision
THURSDAY, MARCH 20 Existing home sales
FRIDAY, MARCH 21 None scheduled1
Summary and Final Market Check