Housekeeping: Good Morning. Be sure to listen to the Premium section this morning starting at approximately 15:01
Weaker dollar if Trump is right, Weaker dollar if Trump is wrong
Today:
Premium: India Needs The Gold
Commentary: India Demand, Gold Price action
Equity Recap:
US equities declined on Wednesday, weighed down by tech shares.
Premium / Markets:
ANZ Report “India retains its golden sheen.” Key Points
• India’s demand for gold is likely to remain strong in the face of higher prices. Forecasts of above-normal rainfall and the favourable macroeconomic backdrop should mitigate any impact from rising prices in the second half of 2024.
• Urbanisation, rising per-capita incomes and a demographically young population are the structural drivers supporting demand for gold.
• Our technical chart (page 6) suggests a break above the record high price of USD2,450/oz will be critical to continuing upward momentum.
Inelastic Demand in action…
Much much more in Premium
Market News:
"Semiconductor stocks tumbled on Wednesday after former US president Donald Trump said Taiwan should pay for its own defence and the US was reported to be considering tougher restrictions on trading chips with China.Source: FT
"Two top Federal Reserve officials suggested an interest-rate cut could be warranted in the coming months—though not at the central bank’s meeting in two weeks—if a recent inflation slowdown continues.Source: WSJ
"ASML reported second-quarter earnings and sales that beat forecasts, as interest in artificial intelligence chips drives up demand for the Dutch firm’s critical semiconductor making equipment. Source: CNBC
"Chinese government officials are testing artificial intelligence companies’ large language models to ensure their systems “embody core socialist values”, in the latest expansion of the country’s censorship regime. Source: FT
"Country music—a genre often ignored or even scorned by cultural elites—is having its biggest boom in 30 years, with an unusual number of artists topping the charts, dominating streaming, striking branding deals and selling out shows and festivals... Country-music streaming rose 23.5% last year across U.S. music services, adding 20 billion more streams—nearly double the growth rate of the industry generally... That made country the fastest-growing genre in the U.S. last year... So far in 2024, the trend has continued: As of mid-year, country accounted for 8.8% of total U.S. music consumption... That’s up from 8.4% during a similar period in 2023 and 7.8% in 2022." Source: WSJ
Politics/Geopolitics:
US President Biden tested positive for COVID-19 and is experiencing mild symptoms, while he received his first dose of Paxlovid, according to the White House.
US Senate Majority Leader Schumer told President Biden in a meeting on Saturday it would be better for the country if he ended his re-election bid, according to ABC News.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister says Moscow does not exclude deployment of missiles with nuclear warheads in response to deployment of US missiles in Germany, according to Interfax
Former House Speaker Pelosi privately told President Biden in a recent conversation that polling showed Biden cannot beat Trump and that he could destroy Democrats' chances of winning the House, according to CNN.
CNN quoted a senior adviser stating that US President Biden is now more receptive to calls for him to withdraw, while he reportedly asked advisers if they think VP Harris can win the election, according to Al Arabiya and Al Jazeera.
Some headlines via NewSquawk or DataTrek
Data on Deck: RNC Convention 15th-18th
MONDAY, JULY 15 12:00 pm Fed Chairman Powell speaks
TUESDAY, JULY 16 8:30 am U.S. retail sales June -0.2% 0.1%
WEDNESDAY, JULY 17 8:30 am Housing starts June 1.30 million 1.28 million
THURSDAY, JULY 18 U.S. leading economic indicators June -0.3% -0.5%
FRIDAY, JULY 19 10:40 am New York Fed President Williams speaks 1
