ING’s Gold Report Card

Morning Rundown

VBL

Jul 09, 2024

∙ Paid

Housekeeping: Good Morning.

Gold Revaluation is a process not an event.

Today:

Premium: ING’s Monthly Gold Report
Commentary: ING Report Card

Equity Recap:

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp closed at record highs on Monday ahead of the June consumer price index and start of corporate earnings season later this week.

Premium / Markets: ING’s Gold Report Card

Gold has surged more than 15% so far this year and remains at historically high levels. We believe this record-breaking rally is likely to continue through the end of 2024 with the current global geopolitical and macroeconomic landscape supporting the precious metal

Gold breaks records in the first half

Gold has surged more than 15% year-to-date, mostly on safe-haven demand amid the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as buying by central banks.

Gold traded above $2,300/oz for most of the second quarter and recorded its third-straight quarterly gain, marking its best run since the Covid pandemic.

The precious metal set record after record in the first half of the year despite the US Federal Reserve keeping interest rates high, strength in the US dollar and divergence in US Treasury 10- year yields and ETF holdings and gold prices.

We believe gold is poised to keep its positive momentum going in the second half amid the current global geopolitical and macroeconomic landscape while central bank demand is expected to grow.

The report includes insights covering:

US rate cut hopes boost gold
Central banks keep buying gold
Gold ETFs turn positive in May
Net positions on COMEX hit over 4-year high
Safe-haven demand will support

Continues in Premium

Market News:

US House Democrats to meet behind closed doors amid debate over Biden's path forward, according to ABC News; taking place at 09:00 ET/ 14:00 BST.

"President Biden dug in Monday, telling a broad array of Democrats that he was committed to “running this race to the end” Source: WSJ

"More than three million people passed through U.S. airport security checkpoints on Sunday for the first time ever.

"Higher payroll and other expenses are eating into airline profits despite strong travel demand. " Source: CNBC

"Boeing’s quick-fire cadence of deals with US prosecutors and a key supplier sharpens the attention of its board and investors on the next big task ahead: finding a new chief executive officer to lead the planemaker out of its rut. Source: Bloomberg

"Microsoft told employees in China that starting in September they’ll only be able to use iPhones for work, effectively cutting off Android-powered devices from the workplace. The US company will soon require employees based there to use Apple devices to verify their identities when logging in." Source: Bloomberg

Geopolitics:

"Syrian state news agency claims Israel launched an air attack today targeting a possibly Iran-linked site around Baniyas, Syria, causing some material losses", according to Times of Israel's Berman.
US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara A. Leaf is on travel July 8th-14th to the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Israel, the West Bank, and Italy.
US President Biden said Russian missile strikes on Kyiv that damaged a children's hospital are a horrific reminder of Russia’s brutality, while he added the US will announce together with allies new measures to strengthen Ukraine’s air defences, according to Reuters.
Ukrainian drone attack caused a fire at an oil depot and power substation in Russia's Volgograd region, according to the regional governor. It was separately reported that a power plant in Russia's Rostov region caught on fire after Ukraine launched tens of drones.
China Qingdao Maritime Safety Administration issued a navigation warning for military exercises to be conducted in some waters of the Yellow Sea from 08:00 local time on July 9th to 08:00 on July 13th with entry prohibited.
Elite North Korean military trainees were reportedly visiting Russia amid deepening ties.

Some headlines via NewSquawk or DataTrek