Housekeeping: Good Morning.
“The Gold reset is a process, not an event”
Today:
Discussion:
JPMorgan Answers Some Commodity Questions
What Commodity Equities Can We Buy?
If you’re in the same camp as Paul Tudor Jones or Stanley Druckenmiller that all roads lead to inflation, particularly a red sweep, then yields only go one way. The hedges are the obvious Gold, Bitcoin, Financials, Cyclicals but also according to Tudor Jones himself “commodities which are incredibly under owned.” But which ones?
Oil and Copper’s Potential
Three reasons Copper might work…
Why is 2024 Potentially Bigger than 2016?
Deregulation may put banks on the best footing they have seen in nearly two decades (pre GFC) with M&A on the come.
How High is Too High for Yields?
At what point do the very high yields that are driving outperformance begin to impinge upon the stocks?
What are our 3 Favorite Longs?
Why are Semis up in a Red Sweep?
Full analysis at bottom
MS Metals Chart updates
Full analysis at bottom
News/Analysis:
Equity Recap:
US equities rallied to record highs again after Donald Trump won the presidential election. Large caps lagged small caps: S&P 500 (+0.10%) vs. Russell 2000 (+1.47%). MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) fell 0.76% and MSCI EAFE (EFA) rose 0.03%
Market News:
"Tesla fans have been reinvigorated by Donald Trump’s presidential triumph. Bloomberg "
"A Spirit Airlines plane was struck by bullets as it was landing in Haiti’s capital, prompting authorities to close down the main airport of a nation caught in a raging gang war. Bloomberg
"Steve Schwarzman’s early endorsement of Donald Trump is proving to be a canny wager. The Blackstone chief’s pledge in May to “vote for change” and root for Trump marked a turning point for Schwarzman, who had previously distanced himself from the former president. Bloomberg
"Boeing said its top quality executive is leaving after less than a year in the role, switching up a key executive as the company works to restart its factories after a machinist strike." Source: WSJ
"Ken Griffin’s hedge fund Citadel has hired Nabeel Bhanji, a long-standing London-based portfolio manager at Elliott Management who worked on some of the activist hedge fund’s most high-profile international campaigns. Bhanji, FT
Politics/Geopolitics:
Russian state agencies reported that a Russian navy carrier of hypersonic missiles conducted drills while passing through the English Channel, while RIA reported that the Russian ship capable of carrying hypersonic missiles carried out missions in the Atlantic after passing through the English Channel.
A senior official in Israel said if Hezbollah does not accept the terms of the ceasefire agreement that are taking shape these days, "Israel is ready with powerful operational plans to continue the campaign in Lebanon", according to local press.
Israel's message to the US is that it wants a settlement within weeks as fighting in the country is exhausted, according to Al Jazeera citing Israel's Channel 13. It was also reported that an agreement is expected to be reached soon on the "American document" that guarantees freedom of movement for Israel in the event of a violation of the agreement in the north which is said to be a positive development in settlement negotiations between Israel and Hezbollah, according to Sky News Arabia citing Israel Broadcasting Authority.
Walla cited US officials stating Israeli PM Netanyahu made it clear to the Biden administration that he wants to end the war in Lebanon within weeks, according to Sky News Arabia.
Times of Israel reported that two officials in the previous Trump administration warned Israelis against assuming Trump would support Israel's annexation of the West Bank in his second term, according to Sky News Arabia.
Data on Deck: CPI/PPI
MONDAY, NOV. 11 Veteran's Day holiday, bond market closed
TUESDAY, NOV. 12 NFIB optimism
WEDNESDAY, NOV. 13 Consumer price index
THURSDAY, NOV. 14 PPI year over year
FRIDAY, NOV. 15 Retail sales minus autos
***FINAL MARKET CHECK***
