Housekeeping: Good Morning. Look for part 2 of the Dave Kranzler/ Eric Yeung interview on GoldFix later today
“I told you, man, I told you,..but you wouldn't listen, well, you stupid f—, look at you now.”
—A. Montana,Arbitrage
Today
Discussion: UBS Likes The Silver…
Premium: More Than They Admit.
Discussion:
UBS Likes The Silver More Than They Admit
UBS sets a 1Q26 silver price target at USD 38/oz, extending 2H25 forecasts, and suggests selling downside risk for yield. Not for the faint of heart
Global silver demand is expected to reach 1.2 billion ounces in 2025, driven by industrial applications. Silver supply is forecast to grow by 3% in 2025, with mine production increasing by 2%.- first increase in a longtime
US tariffs have increased US silver and gold prices, creating front-loaded demand, but this effect may not last. - US Tariffs cause global deflation and donestic inflation
The gold-silver ratio is projected to decline from 91x to below 80x, assuming gold trades around USD 3,000/oz.
Much more and why this report matters along with the report in premium below
US House Republicans unveiled a stopgap funding bill that would keep the government funded through September 30th.
“It took just a few hours for Friedrich Merz to conduct one of the sharpest U-turns in recent political history. Its two coalition parties agreed to loosen the country’s constitutional debt brake and inject hundreds of billions into Germany’s military and ageing infrastructure ” Source: FT- A Big Deal
“Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell played down concerns over US growth after U-turns by Donald Trump’s administration, disappointing jobs numbers and a tumultuous week in financial markets.
“Hedge-fund honchos entered this year betting big on America, expecting President Trump’s promised tax cuts and deregulation would lift everything from U.S. stocks to the dollar. Turns out, an old-school industry in Europe was really the place to be. WSJ — “Turns out” is MSM code for we didnt cover it properly then… lots of things “turning out, and happening “ to everyone’s surprisie” in legacy media land. As relayed by GoldFix channeling Hartnett several times over the past 3 months. Buy Int’l, Sell US, Buy EU defense stocks, Sell US. defense..
Geopolitics/ Politics: Attack the periphery, weaken the core
“China on Saturday announced plans to impose a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil, oil cakes and peas, adding that a 25% levy would be placed on aquatic products and pork originating in Canada. CNBC- Tariff what you do not need… US can’t be bad cop to Canada so easily now. Attack the periphery, weaken the core1
Punchbowl writes, ahead of the Friday deadline for a funding bill to pass to avoid a US shutdown, "It doesn’t feel like a shutdown is going to happen, although there’s still a chance because, well, this is Congress."
Jefferies Analyst Simon has trimmed his US GDP forecast from 2.9% to 2.4%; still expects 3 fed cuts in 2025
