Playback speed

Share post at current time

Share from 0:00

0:00

The full episode is only available to paid subscribers of GoldFix

Tariff Reaction

Market Rundown |

Apr 03, 2025

∙ Paid

Housekeeping: Good Morning.

“All Gold is monetary Gold ”

Today

Discussion: Tariff-mageddon
Premium: Tariff-mageddon

What happened yesterday?- The US Tariffed the World
How did markets react—and how are they reacting now?- Equities down, Economic commodities down, Bonds up, Dolar down, Gold stable, now down
What is happening globally in response to the announcement?- Either capitulation or retaliation- nations are already lining up to renegotiate

*GERMANY AND FRANCE PUSH FOR A MORE AGGRESSIVE TARIFF RESPONSE
Thailand to Negotiate With the US on 36% Imposed Tariffs: PM

What is the actual goal of this action?- To set the table for manufacturing growth, and to remind trade partners of our contribution to the global pie, To pave the runway for America’s role in a new economic world
What is the risk to the world—and to the U.S.—from this action?- Global recession, depression, or worse
What might make the United States back off from this behavior?- Higher oil prices and a stronger USD, inflation and disagreement between the Treasury and the Fed, What China does next
What might make the United States double down?- the opposite, as small nations capitulate, the US grows more confident of a domino effect

More observations in premium…

Apr 3

Apr 2

Apr 2

US President Trump said for nations that treat the US badly, they will calculate the total rate charged, including non-monetary barriers and will charge them half of that rate and therefore won't be reciprocal. Accordingly, he announced the US is to apply a 20% tariff on imports from EU, 34% tariff on imports from China, 26% tariff on imports from India, 25% tariff on imports from South Korea, 10% tariff on imports from UK and 24% tariff on imports from Japan. Trump also stated that the baseline tariff is 10% and announced 25% auto tariffs, while Canada and Mexico were not subject to reciprocal tariffs for now.

US MEASURES

The announcement, alongside the 25% auto tariffs, included 10% base tariffs whilst "worst offending" countries received country-specific tariffs, with China's total tariffs (including Feb + Mar levies) at 54%. The EU sits with 20% but has vowed a response. The UK fared better with the 10% base rate applied.
US President Trump's tariff order exempts gold, according to Reuters citing a White House fact sheet. It was also reported that Trump signed an order that aims to close "de minimus" loophole with a further amendment to duties addressing the synthetic opioid supply chain in China as applied to low-value imports.
US senior official said the baseline tariffs rate will go into effect on April 5th at 00:01EDT and reciprocal tariffs will go into effect on April 9th at 00:01EDT, while President Trump’s automobile tariffs took effect 00:01EDT on April 3rd, according to the Federal Register.

US DESK VIEWS

US Treasury Secretary Bessent said will have to wait and see on negotiations of tariffs and advised countries not to panic or retaliate, while he added the latest tariffs are at the high end of the number if there is no retaliation.
White House senior official said US President Trump will respond to retaliation by other countries to ensure that the emergency order is not undermined.
US Senate voted 51 to 48 to approve a bill that would terminate Trump's new tariffs on Canadian imports, although a House approval is seen as unlikely.
Barclays says it sees a "high risk" of the US economy falling into a recession this year.
Goldman Sachs says the latest US tariffs would further drag China's GDP growth by around 1 percentage point, taking the total drag to 1.7 percentage points
JPMorgan downgrades emerging market currencies to underweight after US President Trump's tariffs "exceeded the worst case scenario".
UBS Global Wealth Management says it expects the Fed to deliver 75-100bps of rate cuts over the remainder of the year;
Morgan Stanley no longer expects the Fed to cut rates in June 2025, due to "tariff-induced inflation".